This is part two of my Kentucky State House election preview. You can read Part I (Districts 1-65) here.
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This diary previews elections for State House Districts 66-100. Two years ago, Republicans finally won the State House. They immediately moved on an amibitious agenda, including charter schools, right-to-work, a repeal of the prevailing wage, limits on Planned Parenthood funding, a ban on abortion after the 20thweek of pregnancy, the abolition of the University of Louisville board of trustees, and bible literacy.
But this year, things started to go south for Kentucky Republicans. First, four Republicans, including Speaker Jeff Hoover, were implicated in a sexual harassment scandal. Then, Republicans decided to tackle the pension system, which was quickly running out of money. Governor Bevin proposed a plan that would end guaranteed benefit pension plans and switch workers to a 401(k) type plan while Republican legislators passed a slimmed down proposal that would only affect future workers. Current workers would no longer get a 4% return on retirement savings and changes would be made to how workers could use saved-up sick days. Teachers and state workers were livid, and daily protests at the state capital commenced. After passing the pension bill (which you will see I refer to many times in this article), Republicans agreed to a tax bill that would decrease taxes on the wealthy and corporations and expand consumptive taxes that fall on the middle class. This unleashed a new round of protests. Finally, Bevin criticized educators and said that their protests had allowed their students to get raped.
Democrats went into 2018 thinking they would have a difficult time holding their own seats, let alone gaining new seats. But Matt Bevin has become extremely toxic in urban areas, suburban areas, small towns, and rural areas. No longer is the debate about coal or the EPA or liberal values. Almost every election has revolved around pensions, public sector workers, and economic growth. In some cases, that is helping the Republicans. But by in large, that is helping the Democrats. Most experts think the Democrats will gain between 5 and 7 seats tomorrow, enough to break the supermajority of the Republicans.
Read on to hear what I think about each race…
KY-HD-66…Bevin 66-30, Knipper 67-33, Westerfield 62-38, Trump 68-25. This district is located in northwestern Boone County in northern Kentucky. This district consists of areas that remain rural (even with the rapid growth of the Cincinnati suburbs) with a few towns like Burlington, Petersburg, and Idlewild. Republican incumbent Addia Wuchner announced retirement just hours before the filing deadline, allowing her preferred replacement to file without primary challengers. That preferred replacement was attorney C. Ed Massey, who has been running to the left of most Republicans. He opposes charter schools and Bevin’s pension bill and has received the support of the Kentucky Education Association, though he is pro-life and pro-2ndAmendment. Massey’s opposition to Bevin has resulted in a split in the Republican Party. While legislative Republicans are backing Massey, Bevin is actually backing an Independent, named Stacie Earl. Earl is running as a true conservative, with an emphasis on reducing “oppressive taxes,” red tape, and government regulations. There is also a Democrat in this race, Roberto Henriquez, who is running on a platform of increasing financial literacy education, investment in renewable energy, and new funding for infrastructure. And to make matters even more confusing, there are two minor party candidates: Libertarian Lex Hannan and Write-In Brett Wesseling. Massey has raised $22K, Henriquez has raised $4K and Earl has raised $6K. Considering Bevin is probably underwater in the district, I expect Massey to win, though even a surprise win by Henriquez (if Earl and Massey split the conservative vote) wouldn’t be too surprising. Safe R.
KY-HD-67…Conway 51-44, Grimes 54-46, Beshear 59-41, Trump 49-44. This district is located at the northern tip of Campbell County in northern Kentucky. Campbell County is the Ohio River County that has best retained its pre-suburban character. The suburban parts of Campbell County, located in this district, have become the “entertainment center” of northern Kentucky. Historically, the district was known for its casinos and gambling. Incumbent Democrat Dennis Keene, the Minority Caucus Chair, is seeking reelection. Keene is highly regarded as a prodigious fundraiser and could be an effective candidate for statewide office. Keene is running on opposition to the Bevin tax bill, investing in prevention services to combat the opioid epidemic, and legislation to eliminate wasteful boards and commissions. Keene faces Bob Schrage, a businessman and professor. Schrage has emphasized the need to invest in treatment and outpatient services with a goal of decreasing recidivism. He also says he opposes tolls for the Brent Spence Bridge replacement. Keene has raised $117K while Schrage has raised $27K. Keene’s name ID might be a bit low, since he has been unchallenged the last few cycles. But this district is still Democratic downballot, and I think he’ll take it. Likely D.
KY-HD-68…Bevin 59-37, Knipper 62-38, Westerfield 56-44, Trump 64-29. We continue our tour of Northern Kentucky, staying in Campbell County. This district incorporates the outer suburbs of Cincinnati and then drifts south to pickup rural agricultural areas. The district’s main town, Alexandria, has the perfect motto: “Where city meets country.” Incumbent Republican Joe Fischer is seeking another term. Fischer is running on his support for right-to-work, his vote to repeal prevailing wage, income tax cuts passed during the last session, and the pension bill. In the next session, he wants to work on reducing regulations, reform the civil justice system, and build a new school in Grant’s Lick. Fischer faces businessman Jason Kilmer, a Democrat, in the general election. Kilmer has criticized Fischer for “undermining” public schools, taxing working families, not doing enough to solve the opioid epidemic, and not seriously considering medical marijuana or sports betting. Fischer has raised $40K while Kilmer has raised $18K. Kilmer’s fundraising is pretty good since Democrats normally don’t put up a candidate here. This area continues to be very Republican, even downballot. Safe R.
KY-HD-69…Bevin 57-38, Knipper 58-42, Westerfield 53-47, Trump 59-34. This district is located in parts of Boone and Kenton County in northern Kentucky. This area has seen a rapid explosion in population over the last decade and consists of automobile manufacturing, retail, and suburban homes. Republican incumbent Adam Koenig is running for reelection. Like Fischer, Koenig is embracing the Bevin agenda, particularly his vote to reform the tax code, his vote for right-to-work, and his vote to reform worker compensation. Koenig wants to work on improving infrastructure in the future, especially as Amazon has recently announced a new cargo hub at the Northern Kentucky International Airport in his district. Koenig’s challenger is Col Owens, a professor and former member of the Covington Board of Education. Owens has argued that Koenig has opposed the interests of working people and educators. He wants to ensure universal healthcare access, expand infrastructure funding, and establish incentives for renewable energy. Koenig has raised $93K while Owens has raised $68K. Owens’ fundraising is amazing considering this is one of the most solidly Republican areas of Kentucky downballot. Koenig should win, but it will be interesting to see if Owens can get to 40 or 45%.
KY-HD-70…Bevin 55-42, Grimes 52-48, Westerfield 51-49, Trump 73-24. This district is located in rural northeastern Kentucky, in the Bluegrass region. The area is known for its farms and its wide-open fields. Manufacturing and distribution centers are mostly in the small towns of the district like Maysville. In somewhat of an embarrassment for Republicans, Democratic incumbent John Sims Jr. is unchallenged for reelection.
KY-HD-71…Bevin 68-28, Knipper 61-39, Westerfield 66-34, Trump 77-19. This district is located where the Bluegrass region, the Mississippi Plateau and the Cumberland Plateau come together. It encompasses Garrard County, Rockcastle County, and the parts of Madison County west of Richmond. The region is home to outdoor recreational opportunities and the Kentucky Music Hall of Fame. Powerful House Majority Leader Jonathan Shell was defeated in a major upset in the primary. Republicans instead nominated Travis Brenda, a local teacher. Brenda is campaigning as an outright liberal on economic issues. He opposes Bevin’s tax cuts and the pension bill, and has the support of unions that would normally back Democrats. On other issues like the 2ndAmendment, abortion, and regulations, Brenda is a typical conservative. Democrats have nominated Mary Renfro, a member of the Madison County School Board. Like Brenda, Renfro is concerned about pensions and the opioid crisis. Brenda has raised $16K and Renfro has raised $4K. This is a heavily Republican district and Brenda should easily win. Safe R.
KY-HD-72…Conway 52-44, Grimes 61-39, Beshear 57-43, Trump 63-32. This district is located just northeast of Lexington, in the heart of Bluegrass Country. Most of the region is known for its horse farms, its hemp, and its historic small towns. Democratic incumbent Sannie Overly is retiring. Democrats have nominated Emily Ferguson, a legislative staffer who grew up in the area. Ferguson is campaigning on repealing the pension bill and the charter schools bill, expanding broadband internet access, and focusing on prevention and treatment in fighting the opioid epidemic. Ferguson has been attacked by outside Republican groups for not really living in the district. Ferguson faces Republican Matt Koch. Koch is a local business owner and former marine officer who wants to promote the future of agriculture, improve local infrastructure, and alive by faith, integrity, and compassion. Koch is well known for attracting businesses to Bourbon County, and for his work with the University of Kentucky Ag Equine Programs. Ferguson is young and not as rooted in the community as most Kentucky House candidates. However, she has connections to Overly, a proven vote getter and powerful member of the Democratic caucus, and Adkins, the current House Minority Leader. She is also helped by the presence of a Libretarian candidate, Ann Cormican. Ferguson has raised $69K while Koch has raised $57K. Because this district still leans Democratic on the local level, I’m going to give the edge to Ferguson, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Koch wins. Lean D.
KY-HD-73…Bevin 56-40, Grimes 51-49, Westerfield 53-47, Trump 67-28. This district takes in Clark County and the northern areas of Madison County (in the Bluegrass region) This district is primarily agricultural, growing hemp and even some tobacco, though areas of Winchester, the county seat, have an industrial base. Republican incumbent Donna Mayfield grew so disgusted with the divisiveness of politics that she has chosen to retire. Republicans have nominated businessman Les Yates. Yates entered the race because he believes taxpayer dollars are being wasted on unnecessary regulations. He opposes a prevailing wage, but supports a “decent wage.” Democrats have nominated Pat Banks, an artist, and business owner. Banks supports restoring the prevailing wage, wants to focus on environmental issues, and like Yates, is not ready to support medical marijuana and industrial hemp, but wants to do more research on both issues. Democrats had high hopes for a surprise win here in 2016, but the red wave was too much to overcome. The pension issue has been resonating in smaller cities, and Winchester is in this district, so it is one too watch. Banks has outraised Yates, $15K to $12K. Likely R.
KY-HD-74…Bevin 54-42, Grimes 57-43, Beshear 50-50, Trump 70-27. This district is located east of Lexington in Montgomery, Menifee, and Powell County. The area has a lot of conservative Democrats, who have historically supported unions. Republican David Hale is seeking reelection to a third term. Hale is a fiscally liberal Republican, and joined with Democrats to oppose the repeal of prevailing wage, anti-union “paycheck protection” legislation, telephone deregulation, home school student rights, charter schools, income tax cuts and more. Hale did support the pension bill earlier this year and on other issues he has backed Republicans (e.g. the “Blue Lives Matter” bill). He faces a rematch with James Davis, an attorney from Montgomery County. Davis lost the 2016 race by 15 points, despite high hopes from Democrats. This year, he will need a large margin out of Montgomery County (the largest county by population) to offset Hale’s support in tiny Menifee County. Hale has raised $59K while Davis has raised $22K. Hale has gone up on the air with television ads though both candidates are running relatively low-key campaigns. It seems like Hale will once again manage to outperform, and Democrats will need to look to someone besides Davis to win this seat back. Lean R.
KY-HD-75…Conway 64-30, Grimes 70-30, Beshear 69-31, Clinton 59-32. This district is located in Lexington, contains the University of Kentucky, and some other areas south of downtown. Lexington’s economy remains strong and is anchored by Xerox, Lexmark International, Lockheed-Martin and IBM. Besides from the University of Kentucky, this district has some government employees and other professionals. I believe Rupp Arena is in this district (where the University of Kentucky basketball team plays). Incumbent Democrat Kelly Flood is seeking another term. Flood is a progressive Democrat and has been a vocal supporter of culture and the arts in Lexington and electing more women to state government. She is unchallenged for reelection. Safe D.
KY-HD-76…Conway 66-34, Grimes 65-35, Beshear 65-35, Clinton 55-39. This district is located northeast of downtown and consists of middle class areas of Lexington. Incumbent Democrat Ruth Ann Palumbo is seeking another term. According to the Lexington Herald Leader’s endorsement, Palumbo has focused on Medicaid expansion, lowering costs of payday loans, and opposing anti-abortion bills and Bevin’s pension bill. Palumbo is challenged by Richard Marrs, a Republican businessman. Marrs lost to Palumbo by 18 points in 2010, 9 points in 2012 and by 18 points in 2014. He is conservative on fiscal and social issues. This district is what passes for the hotbed of the resistance in Kentucky, and Palumbo has outraised Marrs $41K to $9K. She should easily win reelection. Safe D.
KY-HD-77…Conway 77-23, Grimes 75-25, Beshear 75-25, Clinton 68-26. This district is located in northwest Lexington and contains the minority areas of the city. The area has seen some more development in recent years, especially as Lexington’s population has moved outward towards the Fayette County line. Incumbent Democrat George Brown is seeking a third term. Brown has focused on supporting the Poor People’s Campaign, gun safety laws, and restoring the right to vote for people convicted of a felony. Brown is challenged by Republican Marianne Weiss, who is running a nearly non-existent campaign. Safe D.
KY-HD-78…Bevin 53-42, Knipper 50-50, Westerfield 51-49, Trump 70-25. This district is located in the northern Bluegrass Region and includes Democratic areas of Georgetown in Scott County, and Harrison and Pendleton Counties. The area is predominantly agricultural and consists of horse farms. Republican incumbent Mark Hart is running for a second term. Hart is focusing on reducing bureaucratic red tape and reforming the tax code to be more consumption-based. Hart is being challenged by Greg Coulson, an attorney from Cynthiana. Coulson is focused on repealing the charter school bill and dealing with opioid addiction in a “more scientific and cost monitored manner.” Coulson has the benefit of being from the populated area of the district, and has amassed quite a following on social media. He has secured the endorsement of the AFL-CIO and other local unions as well. The Kentucky Gazette surprisingly rates this district “Leans Democratic” which suggests that opposition to the pension bill is playing well in small towns like Cynthiana. Hart has raised $31K while Coulson has raised $26K. I’ll say Tossup, but this is one to watch.
KY-HD-79…Conway 57-37, Grimes 64-36, Beshear 62-38, Clinton 54-38. This district is located southeast of downtown Lexington. This district is composed mainly of middle-class residential areas and is the site of most of the city’s current growth. Incumbent Democrat Susan Westrom is seeking reelection. Westrom is the lead author of the state smoking ban, a controversial bill in Kentucky politics. She recently co-sponsored a bill to improve accountability for how area development districts decide where to spend money. Westrom faces Josh Irvin, a Republican, who is focused on Kentucky’s huge debt and the need for medical liability reform. Westrom has raised $97K while Irvin has raised $2K. Westrom should easily win reelection. Safe D.
KY-HD-80…Bevin 67-29, Knipper 58-42, Westerfield 64-36, Trump 77-19. This district takes in Lincoln County and areas northwest of Somerset in Pulaski County. The district is part of deep red south-central Kentucky. Republican David Meade, the Majority Caucus Chair, is seeking another term. He has been working to overhaul the state adoption system. He is unchallenged for reelection. Safe R.
KY-HD-81…Bevin 49-47, Grimes 57-43, Beshear 53-47, Trump 54-39. This district is located east of Lexington, taking in the city of Richmond and surrounding area. Richmond has seen growth in recent years, thanks to a commercial and residential boom in the eastern Bluegrass. Freshman Republican C. Wesley Morgan lost his primary election to Deanna Frazier, a small business owner and audiologist. Frazier is running on a platform of “Family, Faith, and Future” and seems to have the support of some teachers. Democrats have nominated one of their most impressive candidates of the cycle: Morgan Eaves, an attorney, and member of the Richmond City Commission. Eaves is focused on education issues, which resonate deeply in this district thanks to the presence of Berea College and Eastern Kentucky University. Eaves is also highlighting the problem of jail overcrowding, the need to fund rehabilitation programs, and a living wage. Eaves has raised $66K while Frazier has raised $81K. It was a surprise when Democrats lost this seat in 2016, though Rita Smart, the previous incumbent Democrat, did not run a great campaign. Richmond is the kind of place where Bevin’s positions on education should hurt him and Eaves has the name ID to capitalize on that sentiment. But Frazier is definitely managing to keep this race competitive. Lean D pickup.
KY-HD-82…Bevin 70-26, Knipper 65-35, Westerfield 70-30, Trump 82-15. This district is located in Whitley and Laurel County in South-central Kentucky. It is the first district that we come to that is within the Cumberland Plateau. Whitley County is known for its recreational opportunities in the Daniel Boone National Forest. Incumbent Republican Regina Huff is running for reelection. Huff voted against the pension bill (perhaps as a teacher herself) but voted for charter school legislation. The Democratic candidate is Stefanie Kinglsey, an attorney and small business entrepreneur. Kinglsey supports Medicaid expansion, restoring voting rights to felons, providing more treatment options for those addicted to opioids, and wants to reverse the pension bill. Huff appears to be running a minimal campaign (if that). She has raised $0 while Kingsley has raised $13K. But this is south central Kentucky – Republican for generations. Safe R.
KY-HD-83…Bevin 72-24, Knipper 66-34, Westerfield 73-27, Trump 84-13. This district is located in Cumberland, Clinton, Russell, and part of Pulaski County. This district is also part of deep red south-central Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Jeff Hoover is seeking another term. Hoover has had an extraordinary fall from power in Kentucky politics, after he was implicated in a sexual harassment scandal a year ago. He has clashed with Governor Matt Bevin constantly, most recently when Bevin endorsed an Independent over a Republican in House District 66. Hoover is surprisingly unchallenged for reelection and will presumably try to rebuild some good will among voters. Safe R.
KY-HD-84…Bevin 62-34, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 55-45, Trump 80-18. We move eastward to District 84, which is in the heart of coal country in the Appalachians. This district takes in Perry County and the famous Harlan County. This district is very poor, as are a lot of the mountain areas in East Kentucky. Politically, this district is dominated by conservative, union-friendly Democrats. Republican incumbent Chris Fugate is running for reelection. Fugate has a mixed voting record. While he voted for the pension bill, he has opposed a bill to repeal the construction of nuclear power plants, opposed charter school legislation, and opposed a bill to curtail smoking. Fugate is also leading the charge to re-establish the Kentucky’s Kinship and Fictive Program, which would provide payments to grandparents who have custody over children (which is a frequent occurrence because the parents might be involved with opioids). Fugate’s Democratic challenger is former teacher and former state Representative Tom Pope. Pope has criticized the pension bill and has received the endorsement of various local unions, which are still powerful in the coal fields. Republicans have tried to link Pope to the national Democratic agenda. Fugate has raised $75K while Pope has raised $19K. It seems unlikely that Democrats can get this seat back. Likely R.
KY-HD-85…Bevin 74-22, Knipper 67-33, Westerfield 73-27, Trump 83-13. This district is located in the Cumberland Plateau and includes eastern Pulaski and western Laurel County. The area is extremely rural and heavily forested. The economy is dominated by outdoor recreation. Incumbent Republican Tommy Turner is seeking reelection. No Democrat filed for the ballot, and his only challenger is a write-in candidate named Mona Hampton-Eldridge. Safe R.
KY-HD-86…Bevin 70-27, Knipper 63-37, Westerfield 68-32, Trump 82-15. This district is located in Knox County and part of Laurel County in east central Kentucky. The area is known for its coal mining and outdoor recreation. Republican incumbent Jim Stewart is seeking reelection. Stewart opposed both the pension bill and the charter school bill, though he has generally voted for all of the big conservative policies. Stewart recently came under controversy for sexual harassment in 2015. Stewart faces retired teacher Deb Payne, who is campaigning on an agenda of supporting addiction treatment, supporting foster care help for noncustodial help and working on bail and prison reform. Payne is also a supporter of union jobs. Both Stewart and Payne have raised $4K. This seat is heavily Republican downballot and Stewart should easily win again. Safe R.
KY-HD-87…Bevin 59-37, Knipper 56-44, Westerfield 54-46, Trump 82-16. This district is located in Bell County and parts of Harlan County in southeastern Kentucky. This is coal country, which means there are a lot of fiscally liberal, socially conservative Democrats. The biggest city, Middlesboro, is built entirely within a crater (the only city to claim this title!). In the late 19thcentury and early 20thcentury, Middlesboro was considered the gateway to the “Appalachian backcountry.” People came to Middlesboro to trade and connect with the outside world. Democratic incumbent Rick Nelson is retiring to run for Mayor of Middlesboro. Businessman Adam Bowling is running as the Republican, while Democrats have nominated teacher Dustin Allen. Allen is campaigning on an agenda of protecting public pensions and combatting the opioid epidemic through treatment and education. Bowling’s dad was a well-known state Representative back in the 1990s, so he should have some residual name recognition. Bowling has raised $41K while Allen has raised $0. Rick Nelson barely won this seat in 2016 and it seems like without an incumbent Democrat running, this seat should finally flip. Allen’s only hope is that voters pay attention to groups like the AFL-CIO and the United Auto Workers, which have both endorsed the Democrat. Likely R pickup.
KY-HD-88…Bevin 49-46, Grimes 53-47, Beshear 51-49, Trump 51-42. This district is located east of Lexington, and includes some suburbs, exurbs, and some areas that are still primarily rural. Republican incumbent Robert Benvenunti is retiring. The Republicans nominated Bill Farmer, a former state Representative. Farmer is campaigning on replacing the income tax with sales and service taxes, is against the Bevin pension bill, and is willing to consider legalizing marijuana. He is also highlighting his record of developing relationships across the aisle. Democrats are running Cherlynn Stevenson, a community volunteer and businesswoman. Stevenson is opposed to the Bevin pension bill, supports single-payer, wants to invest in renewable energy, and is for legalizing marijuana and expanded gaming to increase revenue. Stevenson has received endorsements from Adam Edelen and unions and is running a close GOTV operation with Amy McGrath. Stevenson has raised $46K while Farmer has raised $41K. This district is used to electing Republicans and Farmer should have residual name recognition from earlier campaigns. However, this district is in the suburbs of Lexington, which is the heart of the resistance. And Amy McGrath looks likely to come close district-wide, which means she will need to be winning this district. I think the energy is with the Democrats here. Tilt D pickup.
KY-HD-89…Bevin 71-25, Knipper 65-35, Westerfield 69-31, Trump 79-17. This district covers the lower third of Madison County, all of Jackson County, and parts of Laurel County in east-central Kentucky. The district is primarily rural and is home to parts of the Daniel Boone National Forest. Republican incumbent Robert Goforth is seeking reelection to his first full term. Goforth first won a special election in March to replace retiring Republican Marie Rader. Democrats are running Kelly Smith, a librarian. Goforth and Smith both have campaigned on opposing charter schools, the pension bill, and cuts to school family resource and youth service center budgets. Goforth has highlighted his support for substance abuse education programs and his support for school prayer as well. Goforth has raised $59K while Smith has raised $13K. Smith only lost 59-41 in the special election earlier this year, which was held with low turnout. If she can keep Goforth to a 20 point margin ahead, that will be considered a success in this deep red seat. Safe R.
KY-HD-90…Bevin 74-24, Knipper 70-30, Westerfield 74-26, Trump 86-12. This district is located in Leslie, Clay, and part of Laurel County in southeast Kentucky. Like every other district in this region, the main economic drivers are coal and outdoor recreation. This district is incredibly poor and is one of the most Republican seats in Kentucky (even downballot). Republican incumbent Tim Couch lost his primary to Derek Lewis, a small business owner and entrepreneur who primaried Couch from the right. No Democrat ran for this seat, so Lewis will become State Representative in January. Safe R.
KY-HD-91…Bevin 61-35, Knipper 53-47, Westerfield 58-42, Trump 76-21. This district is located in the heart of coal country. It begins in coal-dominated, conservative Democrat Breathitt County and moves west to pick up historically Republican areas of impoverished central Kentucky: Lee, Owsley, and Estill. Like most Appalachian districts, this area is known for its outdoor recreation, its drug epidemic and its political corruption. Republican incumbent Gary Herald is running against former state Representative Cluster Howard, who held this seat from 2015-2017. Herald recently supported a measure to combine counties and school districts to reduce government spending. Herald has supported most big conservative policy agenda items, including charter schools and the pension bill. A third party group called Kentucky Family Values is criticizing Herald for supporting new sales and service taxes that will hurt working Kentuckians. Howard has also been attacked by outside groups who are trying to link him to the national democratic agenda. For Howard to win, he will have to get a large margin out of Breathitt County to offset the other Republican counties. He was able to do that in 2014, but not in 2016. Herald will be helped by a district that still likes President Trump but he is known as a lazy campaigner. He has raised $13K while Howard has raised $21K. Leans R because of district fundamentals.
KY-HD-92…Bevin 55-42, Grimes 52-48, Beshear 51-49, Trump 77-20. This district is located in coal country in eastern Kentucky. The district includes all of Magoffin and Knott County and parts of Pike County. The district is primarily rural and has fallen on hard times with the collapse of the coal industry (coal is now non-existent in Magoffin County). Republican incumbent John Blanton is seeking reelection to a 2ndterm. Blanton is a fiscally moderate, socially conservative Republican, who opposed the Bevin pension bill and has even introduced a bill to increase the pensions of state workers. Because of that vote, he has received some support from local teachers and unions. Blanton has been active in trying to recruit businesses to come to his economically depressed district, and has also supported legislation to increase funding to school districts that are on the verge of bankruptcy (due to the decline in the coal severance tax). Blanton’s opponent is Ryan Mosley, a lawyer. Mosley is emphasizing his opposition to a new law that would make it harder for coal miners to obtain black lung benefits (a big issue in this district). Mosley has refused to take corporate PAC money and wants to help diversify the economy in his district. Blanton has raised $84K while Mosley has raised $16K. In the 2016 red wave, Blanton had an underwhelming victory against corrupt Democratic incumbent John Short, 52-48. This district is moving to the right, so I think he is likely to win, but it is one to watch. Likely R.
KY-HD-93…Bevin 58-39, Knipper 53-47, Beshear 51-49, Trump 83-15. This district is located in rural impoverished Martin County (where LBJ announced a War on Poverty) and Pike County, the largest county in the Appalachian Mountains. Pike County was one of two sites for the Hatfield-McCoy dispute of the 19thcentury. Both counties have historically been reliant on coal but Pike County is big enough that it has other industries. Among them is a substantial banking sector. Democrat Chris Harris is seeking a third term. His opponent is Norma Kirk-McCormick, a Republican from Inez, who lost a 2016 bid by less than 3%. Harris is considered to have one of the best constituent services in the state and is considered a future contender for statewide office. He was at the forefront of teacher-led protests this winter against the pension bill. After the Parkland shooting, he even went out on a limb, and said he wanted to look at banning assault weapons, an unpopular position in rural eastern Kentucky. His son, Corbin, fell off an apartment balcony at the University of Kentucky at the start of the school year, and has been in a coma. Harris has spent time dealing with Corbin’s medical care around clock, which means he has been notably absent from the campaign trail. Thankfully, Kirk-McCormick is not a strong candidate. Harris has raised $56K while she has only raised $9K. But it is essentially impossible for a Democrat to win Martin County these days, so Harris has to run up the margins in Pike County to win. Can he do that if he has outsourced all campaign activities to staff? We’ll see. Tilt D.
KY-HD-94…Bevin 56-40, Knipper 51-49, Beshear 50-50, Trump 79-18. This district is located in the heart of coal country, taking in Letcher County and parts of Pike County. Like the other coal seats, this area has historically been pro-union and impoverished. Democratic incumbent Angie Hatton is running for a second term. Republicans failed to find a challenger to her. Safe D.
KY-HD-95…Conway 53-44, Grimes 61-39, Beshear 61-39, Trump 73-24. We now come to the most Democratic district in coal country – the only eastern KY seat that Jack Conway actually won. This seat takes in Floyd County. Its county seat, Prestonsburg, is known for its Mountain Arts Center, The Country Music Highway, and a technologically advanced planetarium. Like the rest of Eastern Kentucky, it has a heritage connected to coal and unions. Republican incumbent Larry Brown is seeking reelection to a second term. Brown unseated former House Speaker Greg Stumbo in the red wave of 2016. Stumbo was universally seen as someone who had lost interest in his district, and spent more time in Lexington. Brown now faces Democratic attorney Ashley Tackett Laferty. Laferty is campaigning with the endorsements of the United Mine Workers and the Kentucky Education Association, which are powerful in this working-class district. Brown voted for the tax cuts bill, though he opposed charter schools, pension reform, and a bill to repeal the ban on nuclear energy. Brown has also opposed a minimum wage increase, which is probably not popular in this poor district. Brown has raised $35K while Laferty has raised $23K. The question is here is whether conservative Democrats are more concerned about opposing Governor Bevin or supporting President Trump. I really do think Democrats would have held this seat with anyone besides Greg Stumbo in 2016, so I’m going to give a slight advantage to Laferty. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brown win again. Tilt D.
KY-HD-96…Bevin 55-41, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 51-49, Trump 76-20. This district is located in Carter and Lawrence County. Coal mining used to be a huge industry here, but Carter is far enough north that it is not as prominent as in other districts. Republican incumbent Jill York is running for reelection. York is fiscally liberal, and has been a big supporter of minimum wage increases and an opponent of right-to-work legislation (which hurts union voters in this district). Several major unions have previously endorsed York, including the AFL-CIO. Since the Republicans took control of the majority, York has opposed the pension bill, the tax bill, prevailing wage repeal, pro-smoking legislation, charter schools, and other key legislation. Democrats have nominated Kathy Hinkle, a political activist in Lawrence County. Hinkle agrees with York on many of the big issues, especially on education. Hinkle is one of the few Democrats not endorsed by the Kentucky Education Association. York has raised $45K while Hinkle has raised $29K. York was the first Republican to win a seat in Eastern Kentucky, and has managed to hold down her seat cycle after cycle. Democrats are having a difficult time distinguishing themselves from York, especially on fiscal issues. Likely R.
KY-HD-97…Bevin 59-37, Knipper 54-46, Westerfield 56-44, Trump 79-18. This district takes in Johnson, Morgan, and Wolfe County, all part of the coal country. Like other coal seats, this area has a fiscally liberal, socially conservative, pro-union history. Incumbent Republican William Scott Wells is retiring after just one term. The Republican nominee is former teacher Bobby McCool. McCool is campaigning against cuts to education, but has little online presence. Democrats have nominated Craig Lindon, a retired state employee. Lindon is focused on expanding infrastructure, high speed internet and reliable cell phone service in Eastern Kentucky. Lindon has vowed to support an increase in the minimum wage and opposes right-to-work. This district has attracted outside Democratic groups, who believe Lindon has a chance to win. Lindon has raised $31K while McCool has raised $30K. McCool has the benefit of geography – he lives in the most populated and most Republican county in this district. Lindon will need large margins out of Morgan and Wolfe if he wants to pull this off. Lean R.
KY-HD-98…Bevin 57-40, Grimes 51-49, Beshear 51-49, Trump 71-25. This district is located in Eastern Kentucky, and includes all of Greenup County and a few precincts in Boyd County. Greenup County is far enough north that it is not part of Eastern Kentucky’s Coal Country. Despite this, the area shares some of the same characteristics as coal country: poverty, a mountain-based topography, heavy union presence (because of steel production in nearby Ashland) and local politics run almost exclusively by the Democratic Party. Republican incumbent Danny Bentley is seeking reelection. Bentley has been a moderate in the State House. He opposed prevailing wage repeal, right-to-work, paycheck protection (a bill to allow workers to not send dues to unions), and a repeal of the ban on nuclear energy. However, he did vote for the tax bill and the pension bill this year and has voted for all pro-life legislation. Bentley faces R.B. McKenzie, a financial advisor. McKenzie is emphasizing his support for the 2ndAmendment, his opposition to charter schools, and his opposition to the tax bill that shifted the burden to the middle class. McKenzie has the support of a variety of unions and the Kentucky Education Association. Bentley has raised $66K while McKenzie has raised $34K. Democrats won this seat as recently as a March 2016 special election and they think that highlighting issues like education can help them win. But Bentley has certainly prepared well – better than I would have expected since he wasn’t expected to win in 2016. Leans R.
KY-HD-99…Bevin 54-43, Grimes 52-48, Westerfield 52-48, Trump 68-28. This district is located in eastern Kentucky and is a little bit north of the prime coal mining area. It includes Elliott County, one of the most Democratic counties in Kentucky, Rowan County (home of Kim Davis), and conservative Lewis County. The area is known for its outdoor recreation, Morehead State University, country music, and some logging. The area is known for its heavy union support and its poverty. The district’s representative is House Majority Leader Rocky Adkins. Adkins has achieved an almost saint-like status in Eastern Kentucky. He is unchallenged for reelection, which was a serious error by Republicans. Adkins has been able to spend his time traveling around the state helping other Democrats raise money (he is the best fundraiser for Democrats) and spreading his name ID for a possible run for governor. Safe D.
KY-HD-100…Bevin 51-45, Grimes 55-45, Beshear 55-45, Trump 66-30. This district is located in Ashland, Kentucky, one of the largest areas in northeast Kentucky. Historically, Ashland has had a thriving manufacturing center – the 20thcentury Ashland played host to oil, steel, chemical, and dyes. Today, AK Steel remains a big employer as does King Daughters Medical Center. A new aluminum mill that will be built by Braidy Industries is expected to be opened in 2020, a huge win for the region. Democratic incumbent Kevin Sinnette is retiring to run for a local judicial position. Businesswoman Terri Clark is the Democratic candidate. Clark is emphasizing her opposition to the Republican pension plan and the need to invest in easy river and rail access to attract more businesses to Ashland. Clark has received the support of the KEA and the AFL-CIO, both powerful interests in this area. Republicans have nominated Ashland Police Sgt. Brian Clark. Clark is concerned with restructuring the tax code and working to find solutions to the opioid crisis. Clark says that the recent increase in jobs can help people turn away from opioids. Ashland is another small city that should be ground zero for anti-Bevin sentiment. Terri Clark has raised $38K while Brian Clark has raised $28K. Sinnette barely won his final term in 2016, which shows that this district is moving to the right. Kentucky Family Values, a Democratic superpac, is advertising in this district suggesting Democrats still see a path to victory. And with public education at the forefront this year, I’ll say Democrats narrowly hold on. Tilt D.