This diary previews all 100 State House districts that are on the ballot on Tuesday in Kentucky. Two years ago, Republicans finally won the State House. They immediately moved on an amibitious agenda, including charter schools, right-to-work, a repeal of the prevailing wage, limits on Planned Parenthood funding, a ban on abortion after the 20thweek of pregnancy, the abolition of the University of Louisville board of trustees, and bible literacy.
But this year, things started to go south for Kentucky Republicans. First, four Republicans, including Speaker Jeff Hoover, were implicated in a sexual harassment scandal. Then, Republicans decided to tackle the pension system, which was quickly running out of money. Governor Bevin proposed a plan that would end guaranteed benefit pension plans and switch workers to a 401(k) type plan while Republican legislators passed a slimmed down proposal that would only affect future workers. Current workers would no longer get a 4% return on retirement savings and changes would be made to how workers could use saved-up sick days. Teachers and state workers were livid, and daily protests at the state capital commenced. After passing the pension bill (which you will see I refer to many times in this article), Republicans agreed to a tax bill that would decrease taxes on the wealthy and corporations and expand consumptive taxes that fall on the middle class. This unleashed a new round of protests. Finally, Bevin criticized educators and said that their protests had allowed their students to get raped.
Democrats went into 2018 thinking they would have a difficult time holding their own seats, let alone gaining new seats. But Matt Bevin has become extremely toxic in urban areas, suburban areas, small towns, and rural areas. No longer is the debate about coal or the EPA or liberal values. Almost every election has revolved around pensions, public sector workers, and economic growth. In some cases, that is helping the Republicans. But by in large, that is helping the Democrats. Most experts think the Democrats will gain between 5 and 7 seats tomorrow, enough to break the supermajority of the Republicans.
Read on to hear what I think about each race…
KY-HD-1….Bevin 61-36, Knipper 53-47, Westerfield 56-44, Trump 76-21. This district is in the far western part of the state, known as the Jackson Purchase, and is primarily geared towards agriculture. The incumbent Republican is Steven Jack Rudy, a local agribusiness owner. Rudy is chairman of the powerful Appropriations and Revenue Committee and is widely regarded as one of the most anti-union legislators in Kentucky politics. He was a vocal advocate of pension reform and the Republican tax cuts, though he has also led an effort to tax opioid does and increase the cigarette tax. Rudy faces Democrat Desiree Owen, a local businesswoman, who has made opposition to pension reform and support for public sector employees a key component of her campaign. This is rural Kentucky, Trump is popular, and the Democratic brand has been collapsing here for the past decades. Rudy has raised $60K. Owen has raised $13K, which is not enough to overcome the Republican nature of the district and Rudy’s name recognition. Safe R.
KY-HD-2…Bevin 61-36, Knipper 57-43, Westerfield 59-41, Trump 77-20. This district is located in Graves County and is also known for its rural and agricultural feel. The incumbent is three-term Republican Richard Heath, a local businessman. Heath has been a down-the-line conservative in the state legislature, with the exception of a vote to create new regulations for recreational therapists. Heath is being challenged by Democrat Charlotte Goddard, a 3rdgrade teacher. Goddard is focused on reversing the pension bill, and bringing industrial jobs to the distric,t which recently lost the Continental General Tire Factory. Like HD-1, this district continues to zoom to the right, even though most of the voters here are still registered Democrats. Heath “only” won by 20 points (underperforming Trump by 37 points) in 2016, so Goddard may have a chance if voters are upset about Trump’s tariffs and the state pension plan. But Heath has done well in fundraising, taking in $54K while Goddard has only raised $15K. Safe R.
KY-HD-3…Bevin 53-44, Knipper 51-49, Westerfield 50-50, Trump 59-36. This district is located in Paducah, a small town known for its craft art and the site of a uranium enrichment plant. It used to be a distribution point where farmers from rural Kentucky would come to sell their crops. Incumbent Gerald Watkins, a conservative Democrat, is retiring to run for local office. Democrats are running businesswoman Martha Emmons, who runs a bicycle shop and coaches the local high school debate team. Emmons opposes the Republican pension and tax bill, efforts to cut unemployment insurance programs, wants to bring back prevailing wage, and wants to repeal right-to-work. The Republican is realtor Randy Bridges. Bridges is running as a supporter of the Bevin agenda (both on economic issues and social issues), and has the support of the Kentucky Chamber Commerce. Emmons should win downtown Paducah, which has a substantial non-white population. But the areas surrounding the city tend to be blood red, and without a well-known quantity like Watkins on the ballot, they can easily “come through” for Republicans. Bridges also has name recognition from his run against Watkins in 2014, and has a fundraising advantage: he has raised $88K, while Emmons has raised only $40K. Tossup.
KY-HD-4…Bevin 62-35, Knipper 58-42, Westerfield 62-38, Trump 77-20. This district is located in western Kentucky, and has historically had an economy rooted in both agriculture and industry. The area used to have a substantial iron mining industry and tobacco industry. Republican incumbent Lynn Bechler is seeking reelection. He Is opposed by Livingston lawyer and Democrat Abigail Barnes. The race is breaking down along conventional lines, with Bechler supporting most conservative policies coming from Matt Bevin and Barnes opposing them. Barnes has even said she supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, which is generally not seen as popular in rural Kentucky. The two agree that the smoking ban should be a decision. Despite being a three-term incumbent, Bechler only won his primary by 7 points. This wasn’t the only election where he has underperformed. In 2014, he won the general by ten points, despite McConnell winning his district by 32. He and Barnes have raised the same amount of money: $19K. This is rural Kentucky so the fundamentals favor the Republicans. But if voters are upset about pensions, this could be an upset. Likely R.
KY-HD-5…Bevin 55-42, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 53-47, Trump 67-28. This district is located in Calloway County and Trigg County. The district is anchored by the town of Murray and Murray State University (and various cultural institutions associated with the university). Republican incumbent Kenneth Imes is retiring to run for local office. The Republican candidate is Larry Elkins, the Calloway County Judge Executive, who is well known for paying off much of the county’s debt and increasing transparency in local government. The Democrat is David Ramey, who wants to repeal the pension bill and charter school legislation. Both candidates want to change the service tax, support a local options sales tax, and want to attract more investment to Murray State (which generally loses out on funds to the University of Kentucky). Ramey has attacked Elkins for opposing the expansion of the county library and not standing up to Matt Bevin on education and healthcare. Elkins has also come under fire for using his county office to help his election campaign. This area is more receptive to downballot Democrats than other parts of rural Kentucky (thanks to the university). But Elkins has high name recognition and when Ramey ran for the seat in 2016, he lost by 38 points. Ramey has raised $27K and Elkins has raised $18K. Likely R.
KY-HD-6…Bevin 54-43, Knipper 51-49, Beshear 50-50, Trump 73-23. This district includes Benton County, Lyon County, and one precinct in McCracken County. This district is primarily agricultural and has a strong Democratic heritage. Benton is widely known for its Big Singing Day, which is considered the oldest indigenous musical tradition in the United States. The incumbent is Democrat Will R. Coursey, who is retiring to run for local office. The Democratic candidate is Linda Edwards, a retired educator. The Republican candidate is media businessman Chris Freeland. Both candidates are running on their usual platforms, and know each other, so this race has been fairly civil. Edwards has raised $17K while Freeland has raised $18K. Coursey survived several tough cycles in this seat, but as rural Kentucky zooms to the right, it is going to be difficult for the Democrats to win here. Lean R flip.
KY-HD-7…Bevin 54-43, Grimes 52-48, Beshear 54-46, Trump 70-26. This district encompasses Union County, and parts of Daviess and Henderson County. Daviess includes agricultural areas and exurbs of Ownesboro, while Union County is known for coal mining. The incumbent is Republican Suzanne Miles, the former district director for Congressman Brett Guthrie. Miles has supported much of Governor Bevin’s agenda. She faces retired teacher and Democrat Joy Gray. Gray is campaigning on a similar pro-union, pro-public education platform, but she has also noted that Miles opposed a workers compensation bill, which could hurt coal miners in Union County. Gray ran against Miles and lost 63-37 in 2016. Miles has raised $96K and Gray has raised $25K. Miles certainly has the advantage, but if voters are still upset about the pension bill, this district could be one to watch. Likely R.
KY-HD-8…Bevin 49-48, Grimes 53-47, Westerfield 60-40, Trump 56-40. This district is located in eastern Trigg County and Christian County. It includes the industrial city of Hopkinsville, known for its production of bowling balls. Hopkinsville has a substantial minority population, but it often does not turnout in elections. In March 2016, Democrat Jeff Taylor won a special election in this seat by 18 points (59-41). Thus, it was surprise when Walker Thomas returned in November to defeat Taylor 52-48. Taylor is running on repealing the pension bill, addressing the opioid crisis, and providing sexual harassment training to legislators. Thomas has voted for most of Governor Bevin’s agenda, despite representing a more moderate district. This race will probably come down to turnout. If minorities in Hopkinsville vote, and Taylor can regain some whites who are angry over Bevin’s pension bill, I can see this seat flipping back. Taylor has raised $42K while Thomas has raised $74K. Tossup.
KY-HD-9…Bevin 62-35, Knipper 59-41, Westerfield 62-38, Trump 73-23. Incumbent Republican Myron Dossett has served in the legislature for 12 years. He represents a seat that is dominated by small towns and farms. Dossett faces Baptist minister William Coleman, a Democrat. Coleman lost a local race in 2016. Dossett has become entrenched in this district, and Coleman has only raised $1K. Dossett should win easily. Safe R.
KY-HD-10…Bevin 54-43, Grimes 51-49, Beshear 50-50, Trump 66-29. This district includes Breckinridge County, Hancock County, and parts of Hardin County. This district’s economy is based around manufacturing and agriculture. The incumbent is two-term Democrat Dean Schamore, a relatively low-profile member of the minority. Schamore has opposed the high profile Republican bills passed through the legislature (e.g. right-to-work, prevailing wage) but he has supported some other conservative priorities like the fetal heartbeat bill, a bill to reduce regulations on recreational therapists, and a bill to ease regulations on alcohol use. Schamore’s opponent is Republican Josh Calloway, who has career experience in manufacturing and consulting. Calloway is highlighting his pro-life views as well as his support for less regulations. Schamore managed to win this rural seat by 10 points during the Republican wave year of 2016, so he has some staying power. He has raised $86K while Calloway has raised $25K. Likely D.
KY-HD-11…Conway 50-48, Grimes 57-43, Beshear 59-41, Trump 61-35. This district encompasses the historic Ohio River town of Henderson, Kentucky and surrounding communities. Historically, this district produced a lot of tobacco, but today, the economy is focused around aluminum production, food processing, and automobile parts. The Democrats have historically done well here, thanks to high unionization. First-term incumbent Robby Mills is retiring to run for the State Senate. The Democrats have one of their best legislative candidates here, former Henderson County Judge Rob Wiederstein. Wiederstein is running on a platform of repealing right-to-work and prevailing wage. He is also concerned about companies that get state incentives to create jobs, but never actually follow through. He faces James Buckmaster, a physician, perennial candidate, and former Democrat in the general election. Buckmaster is running as a down-the-line conservative on most issues, and is highlighting his support for further tax cuts. Widerstein has raised $60K and Buckmaster has raised $11K. Wiederstein has previously name recognition from serving as a Judge and has a decent following (for a non-incumbent) on social media. And if any area is going to reject the anti-union legislation coming out of Frankfort, it will be here. Lean D pickup.
KY-HD-12…Bevin 59-38, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 50-50, Trump 75-21. This district is located in Webster County, McLean County and part of Hopkins and Daviess County. This district encompasses the heart of the western coalfields, an area that has been hit hard (but not as hard as Eastern Kentucky) by declining coal reserves and the natural gas boom. The area also has ties to agriculture. The incumbent representative in Jim Gooch, a Republican, who switched parties in 2015. Gooch has been an active supporter of conservative priorities in the state legislature, and has secured the support of Americans for Prosperity. In the most recent legislative session, Gooch failed to eliminate net metering subsidies for private homeowners who instill solar panels, part of a larger opposition to renewables. Gooch faces Bruce Kunze, a retired educator and former Daviess County Commissioner. Kunze supports term limits for legislators and is advocating for the repeal of the Bevin tax bill and pension bill. Gooch has raised $47K, while Kunze has raised $31K. Gooch faced a strong Democratic opponent in his first election as a Republican, but he won 61-39. This area is rural, and President Trump is still popular because of his support for the coal industry. Likely R.
KY-HD-13…Conway 49-48, Grimes 58-42, Beshear 59-41, Trump 54-39. This district is located in Owensboro. Known as the BBQ Capital of the World, Owensboro was historically a manufacturing town. Today, the city’s economy continues to include manufacturing as well as banking and healthcare. Owensboro has a substantial minority population. Incumbent Republican D.J. Johnson is running for his second term against the man he defeated in 2016: former state Representative Jim Glenn, who held the seat from 2009 to 2017. Money has poured into this seat, in a sign that both parties believe this race is competitive. Glenn has received support from the United Steel Workers and Kentucky Family Values, while Johnson has received support from Kentucky Credit Union League, the Kentucky Realtors PAC, and Americans for Prosperity. The combination of higher #resistance turnout and a general dislike of Matt Bevin’s education policies should make this seat a prime target for the Democrats. The big question is whether Johnson can drive Republicans outside Owensboro proper to the polls. Johnson has raised $124 while Glenn has raised $69K. Tilt D takeover.
KY-HD-14…Bevin 59-38, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 52-48, Trump 73-22. This district takes in the outer areas of Owensboro, rural eastern Daviess County and rural Ohio County. Ohio County is home to some coal mining. Republican State Representative Matt Castlen is retiring after one term to run for the State Senate. The Republican candidate is Scott Lewis, the superintendent of Ohio County Schools. Lewis is conservative on social issues, but has called himself a big advocate of public education, raising questions about his support for the Bevin pension bill. He has also been endorsed by the Untied Mine Workers of America, a Democratic leaning group. Lewis faces Democrat Elizabeth Belcher, who is a former nurse and medical officer for the city of Owensboro. Belcher wants to reverse the repeal of prevailing wage, and is concerned about the reduction in benefits for public employees and those with black lung. She faces long odds in a district that has zoomed to the right, thanks to the supposed “war on coal.” On the other hand, she should be able to do well in Daviess County (the populated area of the district), while Lewis should have high name recognition and do well in Ohio County. Both candidates have struggled with fundraising, with Belcher raising $12K and Lewis raising $9K. Likely R.
KY-HD-15…Bevin 52-45, Grimes 54-46, Beshear 55-45, Trump 73-24. This district is located in Muhlenberg County and eastern Hopkins County. The area is known for its coal reserves, its tobacco production, and Dyno Mobel (which manufactures explosives). The incumbent Republican is first-term representative Melinda Gibbons Prunty. Prunty has been a reliable conservative vote in the legislature, though she did vote against the repeal of prevailing wage. Prunty faces former state Representative Brent Yonts, who she beat in 2016. Yonts is highlighting Prunty’s vote for a worker compensation bill that he says will make healthcare more expensive for workers with black lung disease. The Democratic Party has filed an ethics complaint against Prunty for using her government email account to send a newsletter. Prunty has raised $99K while Yonts has raised $43K. This area is moving to the right, but Prunty’s win in 2016 was considered a huge upset against a twenty-year incumbent. This could come down to whichever force is bigger: the pro-Trump leanings of the electorate or the anti-Bevin leanings of the electorate. Tossup/Tilt R.
KY-HD-16…Bevin 60-37, Knipper 56-44, Westerfield 64-36, Trump 73-24. This district is located in south-central Kentucky and includes Logan County, Todd County, and several precincts in Warren County. This district is primarily agricultural and includes several towns. Republican incumbent Jason Petrie is seeking a second term. Petrie beat Democratic incumbent Martha Jane King in 2016. He is the only first-term Republican who lucked out and is not running against a Democrat this year. He faces write-in Robert Nelson, who managed to raise around $2K. Safe R.
KY-HD-17…Bevin 63-35, Knipper 59-41, Westerfield 60-40, Trump 68-27. This district covers Butler County and areas west of Bowling Green in Warren County. This area has historically been one of the few places open to electing downballot Republicans in western Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Jim DeCesare is retiring after being implicated in a sexual harassment scandal. Republicans have nominated Bowling Green Businessman Steve Sheldon, who will face businessman and 2006 nominee Malcom Cherry. Sheldon has raised $68K while Cherry has raised $14K. This area is generally not receptive to downballot Democrats and I don’t expect 2018 to change that. Safe R.
KY-HD-18…Bevin 62-34, Knipper 58-42, Westerfield 59-41, Trump 74-22. This district is located in Grayson and parts of Hardin County. The area is primarily agricultural and is represented by military veteran and Republican Tim Moore. Moore is being challenged by Western Kentucky University Professor Donnie Lovell. Beyond the pension bill, both candidates are talking about workforce participation and the opioid epidemic. Moore has raised $21K while Lovell has raised $18K. It is hard to see this area ousting an uncontroversial Republican incumbent. Safe R.
KY-HD-19…Bevin 58-39, Knipper 56-44, Westerfield 56-44, Trump 68-28. This district encompasses Edmonson County and areas east and north of Bowling Green in Warren County. Incumbent Michael Meredith, a Republican, is seeking another term. Last December, Meredith became embroiled in a sexual harassment scandal (the same one as DeCesare and former Speaker Hoover). Meredith lost his position as Chair of the Local Government Committee but decided to run for reelection anyway. He faces Democrat William Fishback, a retired Warren County Sheriff’s Deputy. Fishback is a self-described “conservative Democrat” who is focused on improving the business climate of the region. Meredith has underperformed in prior elections in Warren County (even against corrupt Democrat John Wayne Smith) but he should be saved by Edmonson County, which is a deep red county, even at the local level. Meredith has raised $53K while Fishback has only raised $3K, showing that he is not serious about increasing his name recognition in Edmondson. Safe R.
KY-HD-20…Conway 50-47, Grimes 56-44, Beshear 55-45, Clinton 47-46. This district is centered on Bowling Green, known for Western Kentucky University, its Green Assembly plant (that manufactures Chevrolet Cars), and its historic downtown area. The area is known for its high income and low cost of doing business, and also has a thriving industrial and healthcare sector. Jody Richards, a Democrat and former Speaker of the House, has represented Bowling Green since 1976 and has finally decided to retire. The Democrats have nominated Patti Minter, a history professor. Minter is unusually liberal for the district, and has been active in the Bowling Green Fairness Movement (a pro-LGBT campaign). Republicans are running Ben Lawson, a local businessman running on a platform of transparency and fiscal conservatism. Richard has held down this seat with ease for the last 42 years, but it looks like the race is competitive this year. Minter has raised $57K while Lawson has raised $50K. The Kentucky Republican Party is spending money on this race, suggesting they think it is competitive. They have attacked Minter for spending public money on travel outside the U.S and for supporting tuition hikes at WKU. The fundamentals suggest that Democrats should hold this, but can Lawson claim the independent mantle that was so successful for Richards? Perhaps he can, as Lawson has argued he would have voted against the Bevin pension bill, despite general support for moving away from a defined pension plan. More importantly, can low turnout African Americans show up to vote for Minter, despite no top of the ticket race? Lean D.
KY-HD-21…Bevin 61-36, Knipper 58-42, Westerfield 59-41, Trump 78-20. This district starts along the Tennessee-Kentucky border in Monroe County and then moves north through Metcalfe, Hart, and parts of Hardin County. The area is primarily agricultural and is heavily Republican up and downballot. Incumbent Republican Bart Rowland is seeking another term and has been a staunch conservative in the legislature. He faces Jarrett Cox, a student at the Elizabethtown Community and Technical College, who wants to reverse right-to-work and is concerned about Governor Bevin’s proposed cuts to transportation. Rowland should get another term. Safe R.
KY-HD-22….Bevin 64-33, Knipper 60-40, Westerfield 62-38, Trump 74-22. This district covers two agricultural counties along the Kentucky-Tennessee border: Simpson and Allen County. Simpson County is a county dominated by conservative Democrats, while Allen County is dark red up and down the ballot. Incumbent Democrat and Minority Whip Wilson Stone is running for another term. Stone has gotten exceptionally lucky the last few cycles and has been unchallenged, as the area has zoomed to the right, and local Democrats have lost their reelections by double digits. This year, he faces retired state trooper and Republican Brian Gann. Stone attracted negative press last month when Republicans alleged he had violated ethics and campaign finance laws when he used official state resources for his campaign. Stone also took time off from the campaign earlier this month, when he discovered that he had a brain tumor. Gann is using his background as a trooper to focus on drug abuse and pubiic safety while Stone is using his background as a school board member to focus on reversing Bevin’s education policies. Stone has raised $52K while Gann has raised $10K. Martha Jane King, the incumbent just to the west of Stone, lost by 30 points in 2016. But Stone may have lucked out by running in a year where voters are angry with Matt Bevin. He also has the benefit of geography: he lives in Allen County, so he could hold down Gann’s margins in what is normally the Republican base. Tossup-Tilt R.
KY-HD-23…Bevin 65-35, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 54-46, Trump 73-23. This district is centered on Barren County in the south central part of the state. Barren County has been named one of the top rural places to live in the country. Glasgow, the county seat, plays host to the Scottish Highland Games every year. Incumbent Republican Steve Riley is seeking a second term. Riley’s challenger is LaToya Drake, a nutrition and food educator. Riley has highlighted his support for telemedicine and a bill streamlining the adoption process for foster children while Drake has criticized Riley for increasing the sales tax on a variety of products as well as supporting charter schools. Riley has raised $29K, while Drake has raised $12K. This district is in rural Kentucky, and shows no signs of returning to the Democrats. Likely R.
KY-HD-24…Bevin 56-41, Grimes 51-49, Westerfield 52-48, Trump 72-24. This district is located in central Kentucky and includes Marion, Larue and Green Counties. Marion County is known for its bourbon whiskey, its Civil War landmarks and bluegrass music and leans Democrat at the local level (thanks to Catholic Democrats). Larue County is primarily rural and known for being the birthplace of Abraham Lincoln. Green County is also rural and is known for its recreation. Green and Larue lean Republican on the local level. Incumbent Republican Brandon Reed is running for his second term against the man he defeated in 2016, former state Representative Terry Mills. Outside groups have been spending significantly in this race, with flyers warning that Mills has voted to suspend the death penalty, is anti-gun, and voted for bills allowing Muslim refugees to enroll in high school with Kentucky children. Mills has criticized Reed for backing charter schools and for his support for the pension bill. Mills has raised $41K while Reed has raised $89K. When he was the incumbent, Mills was reliant on getting a huge margin out of Marion County (>80%) to offset huge losses in Larue and Green Counties, which are extremely Republican. Even if Marion backs Mills, Reed’s incumbency should mean that he can cut into the margins in Marion, which handedly winning Larue and Green. Likely R.
KY-HD-25…Bevin 58-38, Knipper 52-48, Westerfield 53-47, Trump 65-30. This district takes in the southern third of Hardin County. The area includes rural agricultural areas, and town of Elizabethtown. Elizabethtown has a substantial commercial and manufacturing sector and continues to be a hotbed of growth. Sophomore Republican Jim Duplessis is seeking reelection and faces retired teacher and Democrat Tom Williamson. Duplessis has focused on increasing penalties for opioid theft, as well as financial literacy. Williamson is advocating for the repeal of right-to-work, a return to the prevailing wage, and an end to the Bevin pension reform passed earlier this year. Duplessis has raised $54K while Williamson has raised $19K. Duplessis quickly became entrenched, winning his 2016 race by 45 points. This area is taking on a more exurban character as the Louisville Metropolitan area moves south. But Duplessis is well regarded for his community work, and most of the voters coming into this district are replacing rural Blue Dog Democrats. Duplessis should remain in a strong position moving forward. Safe R.
KY-HD-26…Bevin 58-38, Knipper 54-46, Weasterfield 54-46, Trump 71-25. This district is located in Hardin County and Bullitt County, just south of Louisville. This district is economically dominated by Fort Knox in Hardin County and the exurbs of Louisville in Bullitt County. Some of the rural areas include agriculture, but those farms are disappearing because of urban sprawl. This area has a high quality of life compared to other places in Kentucky and has an influential and active Republican Party. Incumbent Republican Russell Webber faces a write-in candidate, Scott Hrebick. Safe R.
KY-HD-27…Bevin 50-45, Grimes 54-46, Beshear 54-46, Trump 65-31. This district encompasses Meade County and parts of Hardin County. Meade County is known for its recreation opportunities along the Ohio River, and the historic downtown of Brandenburg. The area is connected economically with the Fort Knox area. Incumbent Democrat Jeff Greer is running for reelection. Greer is known as a fiscal liberal and a social conservative, especially on abortion and gun rights. In the state legislature, Greer opposed Bevin’s tax bill and pension bill, but he has backed some major conservative priorities, like the deregulation of telephone service in rural areas. Greer faces UPS employee Nancy Tate, who is concerned with destigmatizing mental health, substance abuse disorder, and support for military, veterans, and law enforcement. Greer’s affable nature should get him reelected once again. Even in the 2016 wave, he managed to win by a surprisingly strong eight points. He has raised $88K compared to Tate’s $65K. Likely D.
KY-HD-28…Conway 51-45, Grimes 57-43, Beshear 57-43, Trump 58-38. This district is located in the southern tip of Jefferson County and includes various suburban and exurban neighborhoods. The population tends to be white working class, the kind of people who moved to Trump in 2016. Incumbent Democrat Charles Miller had a relatively close call in 2016, winning by just six points. But he is unchallenged this time around. Safe D.
KY-HD-29…Bevin 53-44, Grimes 50-50, Beshear 50-50, Trump 57-38. This district is located in southern Jefferson County, and includes the Fern Creek area and some areas that are still rural. The expansion of Louisville (suburban growth) has made this district one of the fastest growing areas in the state, and one that leans Republican, even downballot. The representative is Kevin Bratcher, who has represented this seat since 1997. Bratcher has been a big supporter of Governor Bevin, and helped round up votes for the controversial pension bill. This has earned him the support of Americans for Prosperity. He was also the lead sponsor of an anti-gang bill and a “Blue Lives Matter” bill. Bratcher faces Ronel Brown, a firefighter and teacher. Brown has centered his campaign around opposing charter schools, raising the minimum wage, repealing right-to-work and returning to the prevailing wage. Brown has criticized Bratcher for his support of a bill to decrease citywide busing, an issue that has been contentious in Louisville for decades. Bratcher has criticized Brown for his ties to anti-gun groups and Planned Parenthood. Bratcher struggled in the last midterm, winning by just 6 points in 2014, before being unchallenged in 2016. This year, he has raised $55K while Brown has raised $47K. There has been enormous backlash to Bevin among the Jefferson County Public Schools in particular, and the Kentucky Education Association would love to see Bratcher lose. But the district is fundamentally Republican and Bratcher has high Name ID. Tilt R.
KY-HD-30…Conway 70-26, Grimes 76-24, Beshear 76-24, Clinton 70-26. This district is located in urban Louisville and contains the neighborhoods of Watterson Park, West Buechel, and Poplar Hills. The representative here is Democrat Tom Burch. Burch has served in the State House since 1978. Burch’s opponent is Christina O’Connor, an accounting manager at a commercial construction and management company. Burch will turn 88 next year, and with the retirement of Jody Richards, will become the longest serving member of the state legislature. He faces Christina O’Connor, an accounting manager at a commercial construction company. The district is deep blue – Safe D.
KY-HD-31…Conway 56-41, Grimes 61-39, Beshear 62-38, Clinton 51-43. This district is located east of downtown and covers Louisville, Jeffersontown, Houston Acres, and parts of St. Regis Park and St. Matthews. The district is mainly middle class and residential. Incumbent Democrat Steve Riggs is retiring, Democrats have nominated Josie Raymond, a student success coach at the University of Louisville. Raymond is running as a progressive, with an emphasis on increasing the state’s minimum wage, expanding early voting, and expanding Medicaid. Raymond faces Republican Leigh Jones, who is a nurse. Her campaign has been close to nonexistent as she has spent $0. Safe D.
KY-HD-32…Conway 49-48, Grimes 54-46, Beshear 55-45, Clinton 47-47. This district is located east of Louisville and includes middle class and wealthy areas of the city. Incumbent Republican Phil Moffett is seeking a third term, and is the only Republican sitting in a seat that Hillary Clinton won. Moffett is known as one of the most conservative members of the State House, especially on economic issues. He is one of the leading advocates of ending the income tax but has opposed Bevin’s pension bill and his tax reform bill (from the “libertarian right). Moffett faces Democrat Tina Bojanowski, a special-education teacher, who has secured the support of liberal outside groups. Bojanowski wants to expand casino gambling, introduce medical marijuana, and repeal the pension bill and charter schools bill. Democrats have attacked Moffett for tweets supporting a white supremacist. Bojanowski has raised $76K while Moffett has struggled with fundraising, only raising $35K. This district is the closest thing you can get in Kentucky to the wealthy suburban seat that has been turned off by Republicans and is embracing fiscally moderate socially liberal Democrats this cycle. Bojanowski is a good recruit and if Democrats want to make gains on Tuesday, it starts here. Tilt D takeover.
KY-HD-33…Bevin 52-45, Grimes 51-49, Beshear 51-49, Trump 50-44. This district is located in the northern areas of Louisville, Kentucky, and also includes suburban areas of Oldham County. This area tends to be upper income and is home to a sizable percentage of Eastern European immigrants. The suburban areas of Oldham County have some of the most educated people in Kentucky. The Republican is Jason Michael Nemes, whose dad is Bevin’s Deputy Labor Secretary. Nemes is in a rematch with Democrat Rob Walker, who lost by 12 points in 2016. Nemes is focusing on local issues, mainly his effort to prevent the merging of the Anchorage School System with Jefferson County Public Schools. Nemes has received the endorsements of two liberal groups, including the Fairness Campaign (a pro-LGBT group) and the Jefferson County Teachers Association (despite voting for the pension bill). Walker has focused on repealing right-to-work, the charter school bill, and the pension bill. Like HD-32, this district is upper-income, full of professionals and socially moderate voters. Nemes is a good fundraiser and has raised $93K while Walker has only raised $44K. If the Bevin backlash occurs, it could hit here hard. Tossup.
KY-HD-34…Conway 69-28, Grimes 73-27, Beshear 73-27, Clinton 65-28. This district is located in the Highlands area of Kentucky. The area is known for its slogan “Keep Louisville weird,” its nightclubs, and its restaurants. The area continues to go through gentrification, which has brought many young liberal professionals into the district. If there is one area in Kentucky with bold progressives, then this is it. The representative is Democrat Mary Lou Marzian, who has served since 1995. Marzian is one of the few bold progressives in the state legislature, particularly on women’s health and unions. She faces Robert Douglas, an assistant starter, who is advocating for medical marijuana and casino gambling. Douglas has raised no money for his campaign. Marzian should easily win. Safe D.
KY-HD-35…Conway 63-33, Grimes 68-32, Beshear 68-32, Clinton 54-40. This district is located in urban Louisville, south of downtown. The district contains working class neighborhoods and the airport. Incumbent Democrat Jim Wayne is retiring, after spending 28 years in the state legislature. Democrats have nominated Lisa Wilner, the Jefferson County Board of Education Vice Chair while Republicans have nominated retired teacher Donna Lawlor. Both candidates come from an education background, but Lawlor has aligned herself with Bevin, while Wilner has aligned herself with the Kentucky Education Association. Wilner was praised for making Jefferson County Public Schools a safe haven for immigrants, advocating for restorative justice in schools, and lobbying for transgender inclusion. Wilner has raised $58K, while Lawlor has raised no money, and this district maintains a very Democratic DNA. Safe D.
KY-HD-36…Bevin 60-38, Knipper 56-44, Westerfield 57-43, Trump 59-36. This district is located in the dark red suburbs of east Louisville – Eastwood, Fisherville, and Lake Forest. The district also includes some areas in wealthy Oldham County, near Pewee Valley. The incumbent Republican is Jerry Miller. Miller has focused on reducing traffic is this rapidly growing area, reducing regulations, increasing transparency in government, and increasing funding for students with dyslexia. Miller faces businessman and Democrat Maurice Sweeney. Sweeney has criticized Miller for his support of a bill that toughens penalties for being in a gang, arguing that the legislation was too vague. Sweeney is also concerned with ending gerrymandering, introducing casino gambling for revenue, and supporting unions. Miller has raised $59K while Sweeney has raised $11K. In another decade, this district could trend blue, as Democrats arrive here from inner-city Louisville. But for now, Miller should be fine. Safe R.
KY-HD-37…Conway 54-43, Grimes 60-40, Beshear 60-40, Trump 50-45. This district is located directly west of the Louisville airport, and includes industrial white-working class areas and areas near Churchill Downs. Incumbent Democrat Jeff Donohue is seeking reelection, as a pro-union, pro-gun Democrat. Donohue is focusing on local issues, particularly the funds he has secured for roads and drainage systems, as well as the Jefferson County Schools South Park. Donohue has also advocated for la living wage, a bill that would alter the selection process for principals in certain school districts and legislation that would change work schedules for emergency responders. He faces army veteran Katharine Sweeton-Windsor, who has run a non-existent campaign. It was somewhat of a surprise when Trump won this district in 2016 and Donohue had a relatively close call, winning by just four points. But the tables have turned, and Democratic enthusiasm should be higher in this district in 2018. Safe D.
KY-HD-38…Conway 56-40, Grimes 61-39, Beshear 62-38, Clinton 49-46. This district is located just west of District 37 and stretches from the urban business center south to suburban areas near the Bullitt County line. Democrat McKenzie Cantrell is running for her second term. Cantrell is one of the more liberal members of the Democratic caucus. She is highlighting her efforts to give benefits to spouses and children of fallen officers, keep control of Jefferson County Public Schools at the local level, and make it easier to become adoptive parents. Her Republican opponent is Karl Licht, an actor and healthcare analyst. Licht’s campaign has been nonexistent. After barely squeaking by against longtime institution Denny Butler in 2016, Cantrell should easily win this time around. Safe D.
KY-HD-39…Bevin 57-38, Knipper 51-49, Westerfield 55-45, Trump 64-30. This district encompasses the eastern half of Jessamine County. For years, wine, agriculture and horse rearing were key themes in Jessamine County. As the suburbs of Lexington have crept south, this area has taken on a more exurban character, with new retail. As the district has become more suburban, the area has also taken on a more Republican character. The area is Safe R up-ballot, and in 2014, the county elected a Republican Judge Executive. But one thing has not changed – this district still sends a Democrat to the State House. And that Democrat is Russ Meyer, who is seeking a third term. Meyer’s record was very liberal in his 1stterm in office, but he has moderated with the new Republican majority. While opposing most of the big conservative priorities, he has supported less contentious ones: reducing regulations on barbers and cosmetologists, allowing students to bring religious literature to class, and increasing the use of nuclear energy. Despite being one of Governor Bevin’s least favorite Democrats, no Republican managed to file here. Meyer can now help turnout the vote for Amy McGrath and think about running statewide (he will be formidable) in 2019. Safe D.
KY-HD-40…Conway 69-28, Grimes 74-26, Beshear 75-25, Clinton 64-31. This district is located in the working class areas of west and southwest Louisville. Incumbent Democrat Dennis Horlander lost in the primary to immigration lawyer Nima Kulkarni. Kulkarni was considered more liberal than Horlander, and is likely to be an advocate of public sector unions in the legislature. She faces unknown Republican Josh Neubert in the general, and should easily win in this safely blue seat. Safe D.
KY-HD-41…Conway 75-22, Grimes 79-21, Beshear 79-21, Clinton 75-19. his district is majority-minority and stretches from Louisville’s African-American west-end through gentrifying neighborhoods with younger liberal voters and eastward to Republican areas of Mockingbird Valley and St. Matthews. Democrat Attica Scott is seeking her second term in this seat. Scott is one of the most progressive members of the state legislature, and has criticized comments from Republicans that she views are racist, sexist, and homophobic. She is considering running for governor in 2019, and says she might be able to relate to Kentuckians since she grew up in poverty herself. But it seems unlikely she can expand her name ID to win outside minority areas of metro Louisville. There is no Republican on the ballot. Safe D.
KY-HD-42…Conway 85-11, Grimes 90-10, Beshear 90-10, Clinton 84-11. This district stretches from West End, a poor minority area of Louisville, through areas directly east of downtown. Democrat Reginald Meeks is seeking his tenth term in the State House. Meeks has been one of the few vocal advocates of gun control in the state legislature, and has also supported a more equitable tax system. He faces businesswoman Judy Stallard, who is highlighting the lack of transparency around pensions in state government. Stallard has actually almost outraised Meeks, but will have no hope of winning in this safely blue seat. Safe D.
KY-HD-43…Conway 72-25, Grimes 77-23, Beshear 78-22, Clinton 74-22. This district begins in Louisville’s African American West End and goes east along the Ohio River to take in the areas of downtown, areas around KFC Stadium, and some white (conservative) areas east of downtown. Incumbent Democrat Darryl Owens is set to retire after 40 years of public service in January. Policy analyst Charles Booker is running for the Democrats, and faces Republican Everett Corley in the general election. Corley has been disowned by the state party for various racist remarks. Booker’s campaign is centered around criminal justice reform, a living wage, civil rights legislation, and medical marijuana. He should easily win the general. Safe D.
KY-HD-44….Conway 65-32, Grimes 70-30, Beshear 70-30, Clinton 55-41. This district is located in Shively, a suburb of Louisville, and blue collar, working-class areas of Louisville. Shively is known for its historical segregation, its prostitution, and its ties to the bourbon industry. Incumbent Democrat Joni Jenkins is running for reelection. Jenkins has led efforts to reform the adoption system in the state, and is also focused on reforming gun laws and addressing the state’s opioid epidemic. She faces Republican Margaret Adkins, a nurse. Jenkins should easily win reelection, though it is interesting that in this Safe D working class seat, Clinton was held to just a 14-point victory in 2016.
KY-HD-45…Bevin 49-46, Grimes 53-47, Westerfield 50-50, Trump 52-41. This district is located in Southwest Lexington. The area is home to mainly suburban subdivisions. The representative is Republican Stan Lee. Lee is extremely conservative, particularly on social issues like gay marriage and school prayer. Lee’s track record as a state legislator has been poor, as he did not get one bill passed through the state legislature between 2004 and 2017. Last year, he was the lead author of a bill to protect landlords from legal liability if a renter’s dog were to bite someone. Lee faces attorney and Democrat Josh Hicks in the general election. Hicks has centered his campaign around campaign finance reform, opposition to the Bevin pension bill, and the need to address the opioid epidemic. Hicks has been endorsed by the Lexington Herald Leader. Lee has raised $63K while Hicks has raised $27K. Lee also has experience defeating Democrats, winning by 20% against a competitive challenger in 2016. But this district is suburban in nature, Lee doesn’t have a great track record, and if teacher backlash to Bevin hits anywhere, it will be here. Tossup.
KY-HD-46…Conway 57-40, Grimes 62-38, Beshear 62-38, Clinton 50-45. This district is located in the southern area of Louisville and is home to the suburban sprawl that dominates southern Jefferson County. Incumbent Democrat Alan Gentry is seeking a second term. Gentry has been a vocal supporter of the Kentucky Education Association and public sector unions. He also has highlighted his vote against a bill that would reduce workers compensation benefits, something that is personal for him (he lost an arm in an accident). Gentry faces Republican James Stansbury, the head of the Jefferson County Republican Party. Stansbury wants to engage in further tax reform and has suggested eliminating the income tax. Gentry has raised $57K while Stansbury has only raised $9K. Gentry won in a red year (2016) by 10 points, and he should be able to win again in a much more favorable environment. Safe D.
KY-HD-47…Bevin 52-44, Grimes 53-47, Beshear 52-48, Trump 70-25. We move out of Louisville towards Northern Kentucky. This district encompasses Henry, Trimble, Carroll and Gallatin County along the Ohio River. The area is known for its manufacturing (some that is environmentally-friendly!) and its tobacco markets. Incumbent Democrat Rick Rand is seeking reelection. Rand was the former chair of the Appropriations and Revenue Committee, and is focusing his campaign on the money he has brought back to the district to fund infrastructure and institutions like the Community & Technical College in Carrollton. Rand also wants to continue to promote the Agriculture Development Fund to help farmers in the area. Rand faces real estate broker and Republican Mark Gilkison. Gilkison is campaigning on term limits, a constitutional convention, gun rights, pro-life views, and lower taxes. Rand has raised $66K while Gilkison has raised $13K. Rand was luckily unchallenged during the Republican wave of 2016, so we don’t have a good understanding of how strong his support is. But he almost certainly has higher name ID than Gilkison and his track record of delivering for constituents should put him over the top. Likely D.
KY-HD-48…Bevin 49-48, Grimes 52-48, Beshear 53-47, Trump 48-46. This district is located in some of the wealthiest and most educated areas of the Louisville Metro area. The wealth in this area dates back to the 19thcentury, when wealthy Louisvillians would come here for the summer. Incumbent Republican Ken Fleming is seeking a second term. Fleming faces attorney and part-time teacher Maria Sorolis, in a rematch of the 2016 contest. Sorolis opposes charter schools, wants to increase transparency in government, and address traffic and congestion. Fleming has emphasized his vote for tax cuts and proposed legislation to push tax incentives for businesses to economically depressed rural counties, and has said he supports tort reform and finding a solution to public school safety. Fleming beat Sorolis by 14 points in 2016, and he probably has the upper hand again this time. He has raised $106K, while Sorolis has raised $21K. But if the suburbs are moving to the left, this seat could fall. Lean R.
KY-HD-49…Bevin 57-39, Knipper 54-46, Westerfield 54-46, Trump 72-23. This district is located just outside Jefferson County in rapidly exurbanizing-Bullitt County. Bullitt has been a haven for new businesses in recent years and has become a major distribution center. The biggest employer is Zappos, an online shoe and clothing shop. Despite suburbanization and the growth of new businesses, the district remains poor, with low education rates like much of rural Kentucky. Democrat Linda Belcher won this seat in a special election earlier this year. Belcher has been aggressive in attacking Governor Bevin and has said she wants to reverse his pension bill and tax bill. Belcher faces local car dealer Thomas Huff. Huff is emphasizing his business experience and wants to focus on the infrastructure and the opioid crisis. In a sign that Republicans smell blood here, a national group, Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, has run an ad criticizing Belcher for not solving the pension crisis when she was previously in the legislature. Belcher won the special by 50 points, but that was against an extremely flawed Republican opponent. The fact that a national group is involved here means this race could flip. Tossup.
KY-HD-50…Bevin 48-48, Grimes 56-44, Beshear 54-46, Trump 65-31. This district is located in Nelson County, Kentucky. The county seat is Bardstown, which is known for its Catholic heritage, its historic district, its distilleries, and its agricultural industry. This race is a rematch of 2016: Republican incumbent Chad McCoy is running against Democrat James DeWeese, a business agent for a local union. The 2016 campaign focused on issues like abortion, religion, and environmental problems, where both candidates had similar positions. But this time around, DeWeese is focusing on his opposition to the tax bill and the pension bill, while McCoy is arguing that both bills have spurred economic growth. DeWeese also wants to expand programs that allow students to go to trade schools. This district has a lot of conservative Democrats, and it will be interesting to see which is more important to them: opposing Bevin or supporting Trump. McCoy has raised $140K and DeWeese has raised $59K. McCoy won by 28 points in 2016. He should win again, but probably not by that margin. Lean R.
KY-HD-51…Bevin 63-34, Knipper 57-43, Westerfield 61-39, Trump 77-20. This district is located in South Central Kentucky and includes Taylor and Adair County. Historically, textiles, wood milling, and oil dominated the economy of this district. Today, the area is known for its healthcare, education, and tourism. Republican Bam Carney is running for reelection and faces a write-in candidate. Safe R.
KY-HD-52…Bevin 66-31, Knipper 59-41, Westerfield 66-34, Trump 82-15. This district is located in rural central Kentucky, and includes Wayne, McReary and part of Pulaski County. The area is known for its houseboat manufacturing and recreational and tourist traffic. Republican Ken Upchurch is seeking reelection. Upchurch is emphasizing the fact that he is chair of the Transportation Committee, which has allowed him to secure road funding for the district. Democrats usually let Upchurch go unchallenged in this deep red area of Kentucky, but this year, they have a candidate, teacher Dean Sumpter. Sumpter is running on reversing the pension bill and right-to-work. Upchurch has raised $50K while Sumpter has raised $12K. This district is too red to support a Democrat. Safe R.
KY-HD-53…Bevin 59-36, Knipper 55-45, Westerfield 58-42, Trump 74-22. This district is located between Lexington and Louisville, in Anderson, Spencer and Bullitt Counties. In the last few years, the area has seen rapid exurban growth from the expansion of both cities. The area also retains some of its agricultural and horse farm heritage. Republican incumbent James Tipton is running for another term. Tipton is focused on easing traffic congestion, and increasing drug addiction education programs. Tipton has the support of the Kentucky Chamber of Commerce. He faces Dustin Burley, a childcare worker. Burley is campaigning on paid family leave, addiction education, a reversal of the Bevin pension bill, a fairness ordinance, and expansion of rural broadband. Tipton has raised $28K while Burley has raised just $1K. Tipton should easily win. Safe R.
KY-HD-54…Bevin 63-33, Knipper 55-45, Westerfield 60-40, Trump 70-26. This district is located in Central Kentucky, and takes in all of Boyle and Casey County. The biggest city in this district is Danville, considered the “Birthplace of Bluegrass.” Danville is home to Centre College, a manufacturing sector, and is a manufacturing and service center for Central Kentucky. Casey County is primarily rural and is known for its metalworking industry, its Amish community and its topographical features – “The Knobs.” Republican incumbent Daniel Elliott first won this seat in a special election in March 2016. Elliott has highlighted the funding he secured for Boyle County Middle School, as well as legislation to overhaul the adoption system and increase the number of mental health professionals in the community. He faces write-in candidate Lydia Coffey in the general election. Coffey is campaigning against the pension bill and highlighting the need for more drug addiction treatment facilities. Coffey lives in the more Republican Casey County, which could help her avoid getting blown out. She has also outraised Elliott $24K to $13K. But it is hard to see a write-in winning an election. Safe R.
KY-HD-55…Bevin 62-34, Knipper 57-43, Westerfield 60-40, Trump 71-23. This district is located in Central Kentucky and contains Washington County, Mercer County, and rural areas of Jessamine County. This district is primarily agricultural and sits on the southern edge of the Bluegrass. Harrodsburg, in Mercer County, was the first permanent settlement west of the Allegheny Mountains and is home to outdoor recreation opportunities and the state’s oldest family-operated country inn (which has won numerous awards!). Republican incumbent Kim King is seeking reelection. King’s campaign slogan is that she is data-driven, not drama-driven. She has been a down the line conservative in the state legislature, though she has opposed telephone deregulation. King’s challenger is retired schoolteacher and Democrat Cathy Carter. Carter seems to be running on a single issue: support for public education and by default, opposition to the Bevin pension bill. King has raised $46K while Carter has raised $18K. Unless something strange happens, King should win. Safe R.
KY-HD-56…Conway 50-44, Grimes 58-42, Beshear 54-46, Trump 53-41. This district is located in Woodford County, Franklin County, and includes a sliver of Fayette County (Lexington). Woodford County is known for its bluegrass, its horse farms, and its bourbon. Development bans have allowed Woodford County to maintain its rural nature, while being extremely close to Lexington. The Lexington sliver is designed to add more Democratic voters to the district. The Franklin County portion of this district includes a lot of state employees living in eastern Frankfort. Incumbent Democrat James Kay is retiring to run for local office. The Democrats have nominated Joe Graviss, a McDonald’s franchisee. Graviss wants to reduce corporate tax loopholes to help fund pensions, expand sports betting, legalize medical marijuana, and reverse the Bevin tax bill. Graviss faces Republican Dan Fister, who ran for this seat against Kay in 2016. Fister wants to increase government transparency, broaden the tax base to fund pensions, opposes sports betting and legalizing marijuana, and is concerned that Woodford County is becoming a satellite (i.e. not self-sufficient) of Lexington and Fayette County. Graviss has raised $72K while Fister has raised $17K. Kay held down this seat comfortably for several terms, winning by 20% in 2014 and 2016. Fister may have residual name recognition from his 2016 run, but even in rural Woodford County, voters are still very much open to Democrats. Likely D.
KY-HD-57…Conway 59-34, Grimes 67-33, Beshear 63-37, Trump 49-45. This district is centered on the state capitol of Frankfort. Today, Frankfort is home to many state workers and government agencies. Incumbent Democrat Derrick Graham is seeking another term. Graham is highlighting his constituent services, his opposition to the Bevin pension bill, and his support for tax modernization. Republicans are running Calen Studler, a real estate agent. Studler wants to add more certification programs at the high school level, decrease tax-exempt properties in Frankfort so the school district can capitalize on property taxes, and enact pro-life legislation. This is the capital and was the hotbed of education protests against Bevin earlier this year. With the exception of the presidential race, Democrats still easily win this district. Safe D.
KY-HD-58…Bevin 57-39, Knipper 53-47, Westerfield 54-46, Trump 64-30. This district is located just east of Louisville, and encompasses all of Shelby County. Historically, Shelby County has been primarily agricultural, growing crops like tobacco, hemp, and wheat. Following World War II, this area started to industrialize. The growth of Louisville has started to encroach upon the western areas of the county. The area is also known as the Saddlebred Capital of the World for its horse farms. Incumbent Republican Rob Rothenburger is seeking reelection. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of information available on Rothenburger. He faces Democrat Bobby Lacer, an insurance agent and adjunct professor. Lacer is criticizing Rothenburger for his support for right-to-work, the Bevin pension bill, and the repeal of the prevailing wage. Rothenburger has raised $14K while Lacer has raised only $3K. Rothenburger has high name ID from his career as county judge executive in Shelby County, where he was popular. He should win reelection. Safe R.
KY-HD-59…Bevin 61-35, Knipper 59-41, Westerfield 59-41, Trump 63-31. This district is located in Oldham County, one of the wealthiest and most educated areas of Kentucky. Years ago, Oldham was full of country estates used by wealthy residents of Louisville, when they wanted to escape the summer heat. Incumbent Republican David Osborne is seeking reelection. Osborne became Speaker of the House after Jeff Hoover was forced to resign amidst a sexual harassment scandal. Osborne faces Diane Seaman, who has held various executive positions with Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield. Seaman has raised $227K (she is independently wealthy) while Osborne has raised only $32K. Seaman has aired television advertisements attacking Osborne for not raising the age to buy AR-15s. She has also criticized him for supporting charter schools and the pension bill and not considering potential revenue raisers like expanding gambling, legalizing medical marijuana or eliminating film industry tax credits. Osborne is emphasizing Kentucky’s growing economy, which he says is a result of Republicans passing pro-business legislation. He is also campaigning on his efforts to ease congestion by expanding Interstate 71 and Highway 42. This race has recently attracted the attention of the Kentucky Democratic Party, which is spending here, and would love to defeat a House speaker. While Oldham County is wealthy and educated, it still also has a rural “country” feeling (it isn’t just Louisville suburbs) that helps Republicans (there is no Democratic DNA downballot). Can Seaman’s money overcome the built in advantages Republicans have? I don’t think so. Likely R.
KY-HD-60…Bevin 68-29, Knipper 68-32, Westerfield 63-37, Trump 69-25. We now head north to the Ohio River counties, one of the most Republican areas in the state of Kentucky. This district is located in Boone County, the home of several large aerospace businesses and DHL Express, a large German logistics company. Incumbent Republican Sal Santoro is seeking reelection and is being challenged by Boone County sales manager Jesse Parks, who is running as a Democrat. Santoro has been a strong conservative, though he did oppose a home school student rights bill. He has most recently focused on finding a revenue source for improving transportation projects. Parks is focusing on supporting public employees expanding voting rights to formerly incarcerated people, supporting a Fairness law, and protecting the environment. Santoro has raised $62K while Parks has raised $9K. Boone County has a well-established Republican Party and Santoro has proven popular. He should easily win reelection. Safe R.
KY-HD-61…Bevin 62-34, Knipper 61-39, Westerfield 59-41, Trump 74-22. This district is in part of the Bluegrass region in rural northern Kentucky. The district is mainly agricultural, and includes Ark Encounter, a Christian fundamentalist theme park. Incumbent Republican Brian Linder is retiring after being implicated in a sexual harassment scandal. The Republican nominee is Savannah Maddox, who is chair of the Grant County Republican Party. Maddox is focusing on being pro-life, pro-2ndamendment and the need for a balanced budget and holistic rehabilitation for drug addiction. Democrats are running former Grant County Judge Executive Darrell Link. Link has the backing of most unions. He is highlighting his record at the county level, namely balancing the budget without tax increases and getting funding for a new animal shelter and new parks. However, Link was criticized in 2014 for exhibiting aggressive behavior at a fiscal court meeting. Ten years ago, this election would have been competitive. Now, the question is whether conservative Democrats in rural Grant County can come home andoutvote the Republicans in rural Kenton County (which is becoming more exurban as the Cincinnati suburbs creep south). Link may have some residual name recognition and popularity in Grant County too, but he only won by 2 points when he was last on the ballot in 2010. The two of them have each raised about $37K for the election. The fundamentals favor the Republicans and so will I. Likely R.
KY-HD-62…Bevin 62-43, Grimes 51-49, Westerfield 50-50, Trump 64-31. This district is located northwest of Lexington, stretching from some exurban areas in Fayette County through the town of Georgetown and rural horse farms in the “Bluegrass region.” This area has seen incredible economic (and population) growth over the past few decades, largely thanks to the Toyota Motor Manufacturing Factory in Georgetown. Scott County is a mix of Republicans and Democrats, while Owen County is a traditional rural county controlled by Democrats. The two Fayette County precincts have a slight lean towards the Democrats. Incumbent Republican Phil Pratt is running for a second term against teacher and Democrat Jennifer Urie. Pratt has highlighted manufacturing and auto jobs coming into his district, as well as money for infrastructure projects, and clean air bus transportation. Urie has highlighted her opposition to charter schools and the pension bill, as well as her support from local unions and the powerful Kentucky Education Association. The economy in this district is doing very well, and that should help a businessman like Pratt. But if teachers are angry, this is another district that could conceivably flip. In March 2016, Pratt actually lost a special election by four points thanks to low Republican turnout. This time, Pratt has a geographic advantage, as he is from populated Scott County. Urie will need a large margin out of Owen if she wants to win. Pratt has raised $55K while Urie has raised $34K. Likely R.
KY-HD-63…Bevin 62-35, Knipper 63-37, Westerfield 58-42, Trump 62-32. This district is located in northern Kentucky and includes parts of Boone and Kenton County. The district is mainly middle class and includes suburban subdivisions south of Cincinnati. Republican Diane St. Onge is seeking reelection. Onge’s opponent is professor and Democrat Josh Blair. Blair’s platform aims to provide research-based solutions to combat the opioid epidemic, reverse the charter school legislation, reduce college tuition, and enact animal welfare legislation. Onge has campaigned on her support for small businesses and community development, and recent legislation cracking down on revenge porn. She will likely be involved in determining the future of medical marijuana and sports betting in the state in 2019. This is northern Kentucky and it is a miracle that there is even a Democrat on the ballot. She has raised $44K while Blair has raised $14K. She should easily win reelection. Safe R.
KY-HD-64…Bevin 61-35, Knipper 64-36, Westerfield 58-42, Trump 67-27. This district is located in Northern Kentucky – the heart of local Republican strength in Kentucky. This area is fairly densely populated, thanks to suburbs connected to Cincinnati. Some of the employers in this district include Cengage, Mazak and Rotek. Incumbent Republican Kim Moser is seeking another term. She has been a big supporter of using Volkswagen Settlement Funds to get school buses that use cleaner fuel. She faces Democrat Larry Varney, who is running a non-exitstent campaign. Safe R.
KY-HD-65…Conway 56-40, Grimes 59-41, Beshear 64-36, Clinton 50-43. This district is located in Covington in Northern Kentucky, directly across from Cincinnati. The area was the historic home of Stewart Iron Works, the largest iron fence maker in the world. The area was hit hard in the economic recession. Downtown rejuvenation along the riverfront has come at a slow pace, and has mostly centered on healthcare and financial investment. Democrat Arnold Simpson is retiring after 24 years as a state legislator. Democrats have nominated former Covington fire chief Charles Wheatley, while Republicans have nominated Covington City Commissioner Jordan Huizenga. Despite this district being fairly Democratic downballot, turnout can often be low here. The campaign has become nasty, with Democrats arguing that Huizenga has violated campaign finance law. Wheatley has focused on investing in public education, expanding Medicaid, a toll-free solution for the Brent Spence bridge, easing traffic congestion, and emphasizing treatment and prevention to stop the opioid epidemic. Huizenga wants to create innovation grant programs for public schools, invest in workforce development, deal with vacant lots, and provide a pathway to work for people with criminal records. This district has a Democratic DNA but Huizenga is not going quietly – he has raised $77K while Wheatley has only raised $42K. I’ll put this at Lean D, but in a low turnout situation Huizenga could surprise.