Downballot Kentucky Primary Preview

Over the last few weeks, much of the attention in Kentucky has been dedicated to the gubernatorial primary. But there are several downballot elections on both sides of the aisle occurring on Tuesday.

I want to profile them here. Financial numbers are cycle to date.

Before I look at each race (which are below the fold), I want to take a geographic look at what counties primary voters come from.

First, the Republicans:

Now, the Democrats:

Kentucky Secretary of State Predictions: Stephen L. Knipper (R), Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)

The only Republican candidate for Secretary of State is Stephen L. Knipper, a city councilman from Northern Kentucky.

The Democratic Primary is between Alison Lundergan Grimes and Charles Lovett. The only interesting thing to look at on Tuesday will be to see how many people vote against Grimes in the rural western part of the state and in coal country. Recently, these conservative Democrats have not been shy about casting protest votes in the primary against establishment candidates who are closely linked with the national party. If Grimes loses a significant portion of the primary vote in Eastern Kentucky, one has to wonder how she can win the general election.

As of now, the general election starts off at Tilt D. Republicans did a poor job recruiting here; Knipper is probably a C-list candidate and may struggle to compete on the fundraising side of things. However, Grimes is still very unpopular after her 2014 disaster so Knipper might still be able to win anyway.

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Kentucky Attorney General Predictions: Whitney Westerfield (R), Andy Beshear (D)

Two Republicans are seeking the nomination for Attorney General: West-Central Kentucky State Senator Whitney Westerfield (R) and Lawrence County Attorney Michael T. Hogan (R). Westerfield has the support of much of the Republican establishment and has done a good job fundraising. He also has one major legislative achievement under his belt: the anti-heroin legislation that attempts to reform Kentucky’s addiction treatment system.  Hogan is not well known outside of Eastern Kentucky but has been active in the region campaigning against the supposed “War on Coal.” My guess is that this primary will be largely based off geography. Westerfield should carry Western Kentucky and Hogan should carry Eastern Kentucky. The question is who carries South-Central Kentucky and the suburban areas of Lexington and Louisville. As of now, I give the edge to Westerfield.

Andy Beshear, the son of the current governor, is unchallenged in the Democratic Primary.

Based off Beshear’s name recognition and his fundraising, I give him a slight edge (Tilt/Lean D) over Westerfield in the general election. Beshear has a more substantial advantage (Lean D) over Hogan in the general election. _____________________________________________

Kentucky Auditor Predictions: Mike Harmon (R), Adam Edelen (D)

Incumbent Auditor Adam Edelen (D) is unopposed in the primary for reelection.

State Representative Mike Harmon (R) is unopposed in the Republican primary.

Throughout his first term, Edelen has mainly kept his head down and focused on local issues like education audits and internal government audits. The people who follow Edelen all really like him, but he is not a well-known figure statewide. Harmon has done poorly in a dark red central Kentucky district (though I guess the fact that he has won when other Republicans are losing what should be safe districts is a plus for him) and does not appear to be taking fundraising seriously. Right now, the only way I can see Edelen losing is if the Democrats implode at the top of the ticket. Lean/Likely D. _______________________________________________

Kentucky Treasurer Predictions: Kenneth Churchill Imes (R), Neville Blakemore (D)

Incumbent Democrat Todd Hollenbach is term-limited, which has made this race one of the most wide-open of all downballot Kentucky races. There are five Democrats running: Jefferson County Commissioner and President of Louisville Young Democrats Daniel Grossberg, State Representative Jim Glenn, State Representative Rick Nelson, businessman Neville Blakemore, and former State Representative Richard Henderson.

In a primary with many candidates and low voter turnout, it is the norm to see the results break down by geography. Nelson is from eastern Kentucky; Henderson is from east-central Kentucky; Grossberg and Blakemore are from Louisville and Glenn is from the western part of the state.

Blakemore is running away with the race when it comes to fundraising. He has centered his campaign on his business experience. Jim Glenn has focused on the need to bring financial literacy to students and crackdown on predatory lending. Rick Nelson has also emphasized financial literacy. Richard Henderson wants to recruit volunteers to “help reclaim property to rightful owners.”  Daniel Grossberg wants to consolidate the Department of Revenue into the treasurer’s office. Grossberg’s campaign recently attracted some controversy when he alleged that his consultant was trying to sabotage his campaign.

Who would be the strongest candidate for Democrats? If Rick Nelson can up his fundraising game, he is definitely the strongest candidate. He is from coal country and has easily won a seat in the last few cycles that Obama has lost by 50 points. Nelson has also been endorsed by the United Mine Workers of America, a powerful force in Eastern Kentucky. Daniel Grossberg and Neville Blakemore would be okay candidates.

Democrats would be best off not nominating Richard Henderson or Jim Glenn. Henderson lost a Safe D seat last cycle because of his presence at cockfighting events. Jim Glenn has barely managed to survive in his seat in urban Owensboro over the last three cycles.

As of now, Blakemore’s massive financial advantage leads me to believe that he is the favorite in next week’s election. But in a low turnout affair, anything could happen.

The Republican primary is between Kenneth Churchill Imes, a State Representative from Murray in Western Kentucky, Allison Ball, a rare Republican activist from Floyd County in Eastern Kentucky, and Jon Larson, a former Fayette County (Lexington) Judge. My guess is that this primary will rest largely on geography. But because Imes and Ball do not come from the population centers of the state, the election will be decided by who wins in Louisville, Lexington, and Northern Kentucky.

Most Kentucky Republicans believe that the State Treasurer position should be abolished. Larson is explicitly running to abolish the office. Imes wants to increase the transparency of the pension system and Ball wants to represent “free enterprise” principles while serving on various boards.

I really do not know who is going to win the Republican primary. Imes is probably a bit more establishment-oriented but Ball has worked for Senator McConnell for decades. I’ll randomly pick Imes. It is worth noting that Imes is so popular that Democrats did not even bother to challenge him in 2014 even though his district is fairly Democratic downballot.

It is pretty hard to rate the general election since there are so many candidates who could win. As long as Democrats do not nominate Henderson or Glenn (and in that case, this race automatically becomes Likely R), my guess is that the winner of the State Treasurer race will largely be dependent on how the gubernatorial race turns out. For now, I’ll say Tossup/Slight Tilt R. _______________________________________________ Kentucky State Agricultural Commissioner Predictions: Ryan F. Quarles (R), Jean-Marie Lawson Spann (D)

 Jean-Marie Lawson Spann, a radio host who covers farm news, is unchallenged for the Democratic nomination.

The Republicans have a primary between two State Representatives: Ryan Quarles (from Georgetown north of Lexington) and Richard Heath  (from Western Kentucky). Both Republicans have been on the air with generic sounding messages about “fighting EPA overreach,” and “strengthening agriculture.” Both Republicans also want to expand hemp production and expand promotion of the state’s farm products.

There are a few areas where the candidates differ. Heath is opposed to medical marijuana while Quarles says more work needs to be done but that Kentucky has the potential to be a leader in “medicines derived from cannabis.” Heath also voted for a higher gas tax than Quarles did based on the need to maintain Kentucky highways.

Quarles is considered to be a rising star in the Republican caucus, is a good fundraiser, and also comes from an area of the state that has more Republican primary votes. Quarles has also obtained the endorsements of Brett Guthrie and Andy Barr. For Heath to win, he will need to sweep sparsely populated rural areas in the western and eastern areas of the state and hold his own in Louisville.

For now, I think Quarles is the modest favorite to win the Republican primary.

I give a slight edge to Quarles (Lean R) in the general election because of his fundraising ability, lingering distrust over Richie Farmer (and what Democrats would do to the Agricultural Commissioner office), and his “rising star” potential. But Lawson is known from her radio show (which is kind of similar to what Congressman Rick Crawford did pre-2010) and I would not be surprised to see her winning, especially if Conway ends up being victorious.

Local races

There are a few county elections on Tuesday as well.

Marshall County Judge Executive: In Marshall County, there is a six-way Democratic primary in the race for County Judge Executive (special election because of the death of Mike Miller in December). Of note, Charlie Hatchett, the Democratic nominee against Ed Whitfield in 2012 and 2014, is running for the seat. Hatchett gave this memorably strange speech at Fancy Farm in 2014. The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican Kevin Neal in November. Marshall County is a traditionally conservative Democratic area in western Kentucky so a Republican win here would show that the party is starting to make inroads into Blue Dog areas.

Meade County County Clerk: The Democrats are Angelia Bevill and Regina Duncan. The winner will face interim County Clerk and Republican Judy R. Jordan in November.

There are also several counties, which have primaries for Circuit Court Clerk: Harlan, Ohio, and Green. The only interesting thing is that Republicans are contesting the Harlan County race (Harlan is in eastern Kentucky and is traditionally Safe D in local elections.)