On Tuesday, voters will go to the polls for primary elections in six State Senate districts. The key issues this year are:
Arkansas Works – Arkansas Works is the state version of expanded Medicaid. Arkansas Works has its roots in the Beebe administration. Beebe expanded Obamacare, but to appease Republican state legislators, Medicaid money was used to get people to buy private insurance (the so-called “private option.”) Hutchinson renamed the program “Arkansas Works” and has continued funding it, despite the criticism of conservatives who say that Republicans should not be embracing Obamacare in any fashion. Government Spending – Many conservative Republicans are angry that Governor Hutchinson continues to increase government spending, especially in the healthcare sector. Tax Reform – Governor Hutchinson and establishment conservatives are running on “pro-growth tax relief” that has been passed in the past few legislative sessions. Tax reform plus a booming economy will allow Arkansas to end the upcoming fiscal year with a surplus. Democrats have criticized the tax bill for favoring the wealthy. Tort Reform – A 2018 ballot initiative will cap attorney fees and non-economic damages awards as part of a broader tort reform amendment. The amendment has the support of the state chamber of commerce and Governor Hutchinson but is opposed by trial lawyers.In a perfect situation, Democrats might be able to pickup 1 or 2 seats in the Arkansas State Senate. But the body as a whole is Safe R.
Now onto the primary races:
Arkansas State Senate District 5
Romney 67%, Obama 30%This district includes parts of Carroll County, Washington County, Crawford County, Sebastian County, Franklin County, and Johnson County and all of Madison County. It includes very conservative small towns in the Ozarks (this district is very forested!) as well as the liberal resort town of Eurkea Springs. The area is known for small manufacturing, forestry, hunting, fishing, and recreation.
The incumbent is Republican State Senator Bryan King, who faces state Representative Bob Ballinger in the primary. King has campaigned as the anti-establishment candidate. He has opposed Governor Hutchinson’s efforts to increase spending and expand Obamacare (under the private option known as Arkansas Works). He is considered very close with Jan Morgan, who is running to Hutchinson’s right in the gubernatorial primary. Ballinger has campaigned as a supporter of Hutchinson, decided to support the private option (as long as the scope is narrowed), and is considered more willing to compromise.
The two candidates have also sparred over some state and local issues. King opposes a constitutional amendment on the ballot that will limit the recovery of noneconomic damages in litigation to $500,000 while Ballinger supports this amendment. King and Ballinger have also sparred over the decision made by a Pulaski County Circuit judge to impose an $18 fee on property owners in Northwest Arkansas to clean up a landfill.
Ballinger and King agree on most social issues. Both are pro-life and anti-gay marriage, and both want to ban transgender people from using restrooms that correspond with their gender identity. Ballinger is well known for shepherding the Religious Freedom and Restoration Act through the state government, that would have allowed businesses to refuse to do things against their own beliefs. The law drew major criticism from Wal-Mart, which has a foothold in the district and had to be rewritten to conform with federal law. King has highlighted his support for Voter ID as well.
In recent days, the campaign has taken on a more negative turn. King has alleged that Ballinger is connected to the Ecclesia College kickback case, which ended in former State Senator Jon Woods pleading guilty to fraud.
King expected to retire and decided to run again at the last minute. He has only raised $8K, whereas Ballinger has raised $44K. Ballinger and King are both from Carroll County. In a low-turnout primary, King’s name recognition in other parts of the district could prove to help him. However, Ballinger’s money could also help. I lean towards King for now, but anything could happen.
Whoever advances to the general election will face Democrat Jim Wallace and Libertarian Lee Evans. Wallace is a firefighter and businessman. This district was represented by Democrat Randy Laverty as recently as 2010, but it is hard to see a new Democrat getting elected here. Safe R.
Arkansas State Senate District 8
Romney 69%, Obama 29%This district takes in most of Fort Smith, except the minority (Democratic Party-friendly areas) at the tip of Sebastian County. Fort Smith has historically been a regional manufacturing center, though corporations including OK Foods and Baldor Electric Company have also been an integral part of the economy. Fort Smith has historically been Republican (at least compared to the rest of the state), because it has less of an agricultural legacy than southern Arkansas or the Delta.
The incumbent Republican Jake Files resigned after pleading guilty to federal charges including bank fraud. The seat is currently open.
There are three Republicans running for the seat: State Representative Mat Pitsch, former State Representative and former State Senator Denny Altes, and former state Representative Frank Glidewell.
Glidewell is running against Arkansas Works and Governor Asa Hutchinson and has said he will back Jan Morgan for Governor. Glidewell has also declared his opposition to expanding the sales tax to cover internet purchases and says he is opposed to the tort reform ballot initiative that would cap punitive damages. Glidewell has come under controversy for accepting $63,000 per diem as a State Representative
Pitsch has been a strong supporter of Governor Hutchinson, particularly on tax reform and Arkansas Works. Pitsch supports the ballot initiative to cap punitive damages and has highlighted the need to expand maintain transportation infrastructure in Fort Smith. He also opposes medical marijuana, a big issue for the region.
Altes has campaigned on his record as state drug czar as well as his experience as state Representative and State Senator. Altes said that he would support legalizing medical marijuana if it was non-smoking. Altes supports the tort reform ballot initiative and wants to “starve” the government by getting rid of 20% of each agency’s budget. Altes said that he supports Governor Hutchinson, but noted that Hutchinson is not as conservative as he would like.
This race is completely up for grabs. Pitsch has raised $69K and spent $16K. Altes has raised $5K and spent $30K. Glidewell has raised $0 and spent $7K. Pitsch is probably most prominent, so I will go with him, but a low turnout could mean anything.
Arkansas State Senate District 15
Romney 66%, Obama 32%This district takes in a few exurban precincts in Northern Pulaski County, before moving through rural Perry County, rural Conway County, rural Van Buren County, and rural Faulkner County. It was originally drawn as a Democratic gerrymander, but has rapidly moved to the right over the past eight years. The district’s economy is based on agriculture (cattle and hogs), small manufacturing, forestry, tourism, and timber.
Incumbent State Senator David Sanders is set to retire in January 2019, though he will continue his work as Director of Winrock International’s Innovate Arkansas, the statewide initiative that helps startups and other technology ventures reach their potential.
Two Republicans are running in the primary to succeed Sanders. Dillards lobbyist and former state representative Dean Elliott is running as the self-described pro-Trump insurgent candidate. He has been criticized for missing votes in the State House and for allowing illegals to get drivers licenses. Charity consultant Mark Johnson is running on a self-described “Christian, conservative” platform and has focused on social issues. Johnson has been endorsed by Mike Huckabee and state Representative Mark Lowery.
Both candidates are from Pulaski County, leaving the vast rural reaches of this district open to either candidate. Johnson has raised $60K and spent $16K while Elliott has raised $36K and spent $9K. Advantage to Johnson.
Whoever wins the Republican primary will be unopposed in the general election.
Arkansas State Senate District 19
Romney 68%, Obama 28%This district is located northeastern Arkansas, home of the old school conservative Democrat. It takes in Independence County, Izard County, Sharp County, and Randolph County. The district includes scenic hills known for tourism and rafting as well as construction, mining, and small manufacturing.
The incumbent Senator is Republican Linda Collins-Smith. Collins-Smith has opposed Hutchinson’s Arkansas Works Program, though did back his tax cut plan. Collins-Smith has also supported school choice (in contrast to Sturch), and enhanced carry, a longtime priority of Gun Owners of America. Collins-Smith also introduced a “bathroom” bill in the last session.
Collins-Smith faces a primary challenge from State Representative James Sturch. Sturch supported the Hutchinson tax cut and also supported Arkansas Works. He has opposed school choice legislation and has criticized Collins-Smith for voting present on a measure to cut taxes on military retirees.
Collins-Smith is from Pocahantas, where there are still a lot of conservative Democrats (the only remaining rural Blue Dog Democrat in the legislature is from Pocahantas). Sturch is from an area with more people identifying as Republicans. Collins-Smith has raised $25K and spent $16K while Sturch has raised $40K and spent $28K. Slight advantage to Collins-Smith for incumbency, but Sturch could upset.
Arkansas State Senate District 24
Obama 62%, Romney 37%This district is a minority-majority district located in the Delta. The rural areas of this district are agricultural (a lot of corporate beef and hog farms). The district is also home to West Memphis. Like the rest of the Delta, this district remains mired in poverty, and has been hard by the drug crisis.
The incumbent State Senator is white Democrat and State Senate Minority Leader Keith Ingram. Ingram has connections to the previously powerful Democrats in the state: Mike Beebe, Mike Ross, Mark Pryor, Blanche Lincoln etc. Since he is in the minority, Ingram has focused more on constituent services. He secured grants to keep the I-55 bridge open in Memphis, has secured funding for the Port of West Memphis, and has introduced legislation to provide tax credits for poor rural communities in the Delta.
Ingram faces Turrell mayor Dorothy Cooper in the primary. Cooper is highlighting her work rebuilding libraries, streets, and the water system in her town. She wants to focus on education and economic systems, especially in the proverbial dying towns of the Delta. Cooper is black, and will likely do well among the black population. However, blacks have historically voted at low rates in the primary, which is why Ingram was elected in the first place.
The primary has been very quiet and has not turned negative. Ingram has raised $80K and spent $21K. Cooper has raised $1K and spent $5K. Ingram should win, thanks to his name recognition advantage.
Arkansas State Senate District 30
Obama 75%, Romney 23%This district is a minority-majority seat containing exurban areas southeast of Little Rock, some areas that seem very rural (with fields) southeast of Little Rock, very poor areas of eastern Little Rock, upper middle class areas of North Little Rock, and a variety of suburbs and unincorporated area in northeast Pulaski County.
The incumbent Democrat is Linda Chesterfield. Chesterfield is being challenged by businessman and state farm insurance agent Andre Pendleton.
Chesterfield has come under fire from the media for earmarking her General Improvement Fund funds to a Missouri-based healthcare company. The company has come under federal scrutiny because its lobbyist, Rusty Cranford was charged in connection with a scheme to obtain state and federal funds in exchange for bribes and kickbacks. Chesterfield is highlighting her support for public education and Medicaid and says she wants to expand internet access to her residents. She also wants to make sure that the Board of Education gives control of the Little Rock School District back to local officials (control of school districts has been a complicated issue in Little Rock since the 1957 integration of Central High).
Chesterfield has raised $11K and spent $14K while Pendleton does not appear to have raised any money. In a low-turnout election, Chesterfield should win, though if corruption allegations swirl around her, she could be vulnerable with a better opponent in 4 years.