Kentucky’s 49th State House District Special Election
2016 President: Trump 72%, Clinton 23% 2015 Governor: Bevin 56%, Conway 39% 2015 Secretary of State: Knipper 53%, Grimes 47% 2015 Attorney General: Westerfield 54%, Beshear 46% 2015 Auditor: Harmon 55%, Edelen 45% 2014 Senate: McConnell 59%, Grimes 38% 2012 President: Romney 66%, Obama 33%This Tuesday, voters in Kentucky’s 49th State House District will go to the polls to elect their new state Representative.
The district is located in Bullitt County, just south of Louisville. Bullitt is in the process of transitioning from a predominantly rural agricultural economy to an exurban/suburban economy that is part of the greater Louisville area. In recent years, the district has become a major distribution center. The largest employer is Zappos, an online shoe and clothing shop.
Despite some suburbanization, the district remains poor (when you think of wealthy suburbs in Louisville, think of Oldham County, not Bullitt). As the Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting (KYCIR) explained, “the percentage of adults with a college degree is less than half the national average.” The KYCIR also noted that“it is not uncommon to see Confederate flags hanging from poles, porches and barns” in the county.
The seat is vacant because of the suicide of former Representative Dan Johnson.
Johnson was first elected in November 2016, as Kentucky Republicans were claiming the majority of the State House for the first time in 95 years. Johnson’s campaign against incumbent Democrat Linda Belcher was extremely nasty. Johnson claimed that Belcher had sent Chicago thugs after him and had road blocked and ambushed his truck. Johnson also said that Belcher had personally killed 80,000 babies. Mac Brown, the chair of the state party, disowned Johnson, and refused to support him after it was revealed that he had compared a photo of President Obama to a chimpanzee.
Belcher tried to focus on her positive attributes, especially her history of bringing money back into the community. Her website noted her extensive community service work as well.
In the end, Belcher’s attempts to localize the race were not enough. The Republican wave arrived in Kentucky, and Belcher lost 50.4%-49.6%.
In the state legislature, Johnson developed a close relationship with C. Wesley Morgan, a Republican from Madison County. Like Johnson, Morgan had been elected without a lot of interest from the state Republican Party. Johnson also developed a conservative voting record, as Republicans, led by Jeff Hoover, began enacting an agenda they had long sought: charter schools, right-to-work, prevailing wage repeal, abortion restrictions etc.
Then, in December 2017, the KYCIR released a bombshell report about Johnson. Among the many interesting parts of Johnson’s past: he molested a 17-year old girl on New Year’s Eve in 2012, committed arson to collect insurance, was possibly involved in another arson case with his church, was cited at least three times by Alcohol Beverage Control officers, and was involved in a number of different lies, including that he had served as a United Nations ambassador and White House chaplain to three presidents. He was also the pastor who had gave last rites for people who died at the World Trade Center on September 11th.
Johnson gave a press conference a day after the article came out and denied all of the allegations. But a day after that, he committed suicide with a gun. The state party never endorsed Johnson in 2016. Matt Bevin called Johnson an embarrassment to the state, but notably was not as direct about asking him to resign as he was for four other state House Republicans accused of sexual harassment (notably former Speaker Jeff Hoover).
After Johnson’s death, his wife, Rebecca, stepped in to be a candidate, with the intent of carrying on her husband’s legacy. Johnson has made controversial remarks in the same manner as her husband. She has made light of drug use and domestic violence, used profanity to describe refugees, and lied about how many employees she managed at a job at Louisville Airport. But she has promised to continue to vote for conservative legislation, which has earned her donations from powerful Louisville State Senator Dan Seum and House Speaker Pro Tempore (and de facto Speaker) David Osborne. Her campaign is also being run by David Adams, who led Rand Paul’s primary campaign in 2010.
Johnson’s campaign has been fairly low key, with an emphasis on getting her message out via Facebook. She’s skipped several debates and has focused on one of her husband’s main issues, which was a bill to make it illegal for computers to be sold without a pornography blocker. Johnson has taken a few other notable positions: she is opposed to Governor Bevin’s pension reform plan (discussed a little bit more below) and has expressed support for medical marijuana as a way to end the opioid crisis.
On the Democratic side, former State Representative and teacher Linda Belcher is back for another run. Belcher was first elected to the State House in 2008 after the incumbent (her husband), Larry Belcher, died in a car accident. During the Obama administration, rural Kentucky voters gradually realigned to the Republican Party. As Bullitt County became more exurban, the region started to lose its rural Democratic heritage. Belcher managed to win her first regular election in 2008 with 54%, her second election in 2010 with 50.3%, lost her third election in 2012 with 47%, won her fourth election in 2014 with 53%, and lost her fifth election in 2016 with 49.6%.
After trying to ignore Johnson’s history of controversial comments, Belcher has been more open to criticizing her opponent this time around. She is counting on name recognition and has also built a robust GOTV operation. Belcher has received help from Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes and Steve Beshear and will receive help from Minority Leader Rocky Adkins in the closing days of the campaign.
On the policy front, Belcher has highlighted her support for abortion rights as well as the need to invest in infrastructure and opioid addiction treatment programs. She has also talked about previous legislation she sponsored to rework wastewater treatment plant regulations and give students suicide prevention information.
Belcher is also hoping that a backlash against the KY-GOP will help her. While the state continues to trend to the right, the State House Republicans have had a very difficult beginning to the 2018 session. During the first few weeks, the caucus was bogged down trying to decide what to do about the Jeff Hoover sexual harassment scandal. The caucus has also struggled to come up with a pension reform bill that they have been promising for some time (the bill has already created a lot of opposition among teachers, who are running as both Democrats and Republicans in record numbers). Matt Bevin’s budget cuts (especially to education) have also sparked some criticism across the state.
So who wins?
Special elections are inherently low turnout affairs. And sometimes the most committed partisans in this state are Democrats. In March 2016, Kentucky hosted 4 State House specials. The State House was teetering on the edge, with 50 Democrats and 46 Republicans. In a huge shock (only predicted by Greg Stumbo), Democrats held onto their two open seats by comfortable margins and actually picked up a Republican seat. Democrats used those victories as rationales for why they would ultimately keep the State House in November (of course, that didn’t happen).
Belcher is also very well known in the district, since she’s been on the ballot since 2008. But there could also be some sympathy votes for Rebecca Johnson, especially considering the libertarian-conservative orientation of this district. Johnson may win simply because rural Kentucky continues to trend towards the Republican Party.
Belcher has raised $36,000 and spent $6,000 while Johnson has raised $7,000 and spent $3,000 (though all of these numbers are from January, and don’t reflect recent donations).
It is unclear whether the Secretary of State will be reporting the results by precinct on Tuesday. If they are, here’s what to watch for:
Johnson needs to do well in Mount Washington and the rural areas east of Hebron Estates and Hillview. Belcher’s strength will come in Shepherdsville, the main town in this district, which is actually divided into two. Belcher will do well in the northern part of Shepherdsville (the area closer to Louisville). If she wants to win, she’ll need to do well in the southern portion of the district (A111, D104, A101, D113, D114). She’ll also need to win the rural areas directly south of Shepherdsville.To follow along, it might be helpful to look at DKE’s interactive KY House map from a few years ago.